Decline & Fall

UCL QFs

Its’ the UCL QFS this week, & the round of 16 saw a couple of shocks.
Real Madrid have now gone out in the last 16 for the 6th year in succession. In recent years they have been vulnerable defensively. The biggest mistake Real made in that time was not offering Claude Makele an improved contract. Since he left, they haven’t replaced him with a defensive midfielder of similar quality, & in fact since they sold him have never gone past the UCL QFs. Still, it defies belief to think a team with both Ronaldo & Kaka can’t get past the 1st knockout round.

Inter thwarted Abramovich's dreams of glory for another year. Once Inter had a first leg lead against Chelsea, if you were to bet on any side to keep a clean sheet, it would be a Mourinho team.

Barca & Man U, the betting favourites, are in opposite halves of the draw & I think will both get through, for a repeat of last year’s final.

Davis Cup Disaster

British tennis reached its nadir with the 3-2 Davis Cup loss to Lithuania. The contrast with the strength in depth of men’s tennis with the leading Euro nations (Spain, France, Germany) is obvious.

I don’t believe the common opinion that GB players fail as they tend to be middle class & so don’t have the hunger to succeed. Henman is from a comfortable middle class background & got to no. 4 in the world, & Murray is similar. British tennis is undoubtedly too elitist though. Two courts in the local park were taken over by the local tennis club (they can still be booked by the public through the club, but its hardly widely advertised). Widening the participation at grassroots level to reach more of those from less comfortable backgrounds cannot do any harm.

Apart from Murray, the womens side is healthier with both Baltacha & Keothavong reaching the main draw of Indian Wells this month; & the talents for the future of Laura Robson & Heather Watson (junior Wimbledon & US Open winners respectively)

Feat of Clay

French Open Tennis


Dinara Safina has been the surprise of the tournament, backing up her win in Berlin by reaching the final. Her run has included two great comebacks against Sharapova (from a set & 5-3 down) & Dementieva (set & 5-2 down) saving a match point both times. Ivanovic has been undone by nerves in finals before & Safina can add another Slam to the family trophy cabinet. It looks like only the Williams sisters can prevent Serbo-Russian domination at Wimbledon & the US Open.
Federer looks to have his work cut out against Nadal in Sunday's mens' final. Rafa was awesome in beating Djokovic in straight sets in the semi yesterday. Nadal in 4 sets.


Euro2008


Euro 2008 looks quite an open tournament, the leading contenders seem to be closely matched. I've commented on the lopsided draw in my post of 15/12/07. Italy & France both have ageing squads. Italy don't appear to be as formidable defensively as they once were. Cannavaro will miss the tournament due to injury, & Nesta has retired from the national team (as has Totti). France are also getting long in the tooth through the spine of the team (Makelele, Viera, Henry) but Ribery has been in superb form. Portugal have man of the moment Mr C Ronaldo, but should suffer from lack of quality strikers. Spain are unbeaten in 15 matches & have beaten both France & Italy in that run, albeit in friendlies; & have in Torres arguably the best striker in Europe. Germany are in the easy half of the draw, and should be back to their traditional status as favourites, having performed miserably at both Euro 2000 & 2004. Croatia are my pick as dark horses. A Spain Germany final then, Miroslav Klose to finish top scorer.