Risk & Reward

It was one of the all-time great underdog victories. Japan’s previous world cup record read P22, W1 D1 L 22. The opposition, South Africa, are two-time world cup winners.

The lead changed hands four times in the first half, but according to the usual script Japan would succumb and the Springboks would come though after being given an almighty scare. On 44 minutes, South Africa had a six point lead, & by the 63^rd it was seven, but Japan refused to yield. On 79 minutes, trailing by 3, surely they would go for the penalty & take the draw? No, they had the guts to risk going for the win & were rewarded with a sensational victory.   

 

Novak Djokovic is on course to have one of the standout seasons of recent years. It ranks with McEnroe in 1984 (W82 L3), Federer 2006 (92-5), Nadal 2010 & his own stellar season of 2011.

Worryingly for his rivals in the indoor season , the Serb hasn’t lost on indoor (hard) court for 31 matches. Among his contemporaries only Wawrinka , Murray & Nishikori  look capable of beating him in a best-of five match. Of the younger guns, Coric is not yet at his level, Dimitrov has had an off year, & Krygios is too flaky.

At the US Open Murray ran into Kevin Anderson in the best form of his career, but still has a massive prize to play for. GB will play Belgium in the Davis Cup final after Murray won three rubbers for the second tie in succession.

 

Great credit is due to Wayne Rooney for breaking Charlton’s England goal record. He’s also closing in on the Man U club record.

Premiership Predictions

Predictions for the top five:
Arsenal haven't made any signings to solve their problems in central defence or in goal, & the two best creative midfielders leaving is too not too promising either. No doubt they will flatter to deceive again this season & Gervinho may be able to score the goals when Van Persie is injured.
Liverpool can be contenders if they continue the form they showed last season when King Kenny took over. With players like Adam, Suarez, Carroll, (& Gerrard if fit) they look strong in attack but how strong is their defence ?
Man City might be the closest challengers to Man U, but I think even with their squad & the addition of Aguero, they will struggle to cope with balancing their their first season in the Champions League with a title run.
Chelsea have yet to make any big new signings but new coach Villas-Boas had a fantastic season with Porto, & if he can inspire Torres back to form they can push United.
I can't see anyone stopping Man U though. Rooney, Nani, Hernadez/Berbatov in attack & now Ashley Young has been added to the list of top class wingers at Man U. The defence with Vidic & Ferdinand/Smalling should be as tight as last year. the Community Shield win over Man City showed once more that they are the comeback kings, as they did v Blackpool & West Ham in the league last season, they overcame a two-goal defecit to win.
So my top 5 is
1. Man U
2. Chelsea
3. Man City
4. Liverpool
5. Arsenal

New Season

My predictions for the Premiership:

This year again, only the Big Four can win the title. Man City's squad seems top-heavy with strikers & they will need to massively improve on their away form from last season. They will get some good results but i can't see them being consistent enough. Arsenal have talent & the promise of youngsters like Wilshere for the future. Their midfield looks too lightweight to me, they need someone in the Viera mould who can boss the midfield. Liverpool will up at the top again this year, but they lack adequate cover for Torres. Which leaves the usual suspects: Man U & Chelsea. Man U are bound to miss Ronaldo's goals & assists, though they will hardly be struggling for goals with Rooney, Berbatov & Owen. Chelsea can grind out the title, but it will be close, by not more than 5 points.

WTA & ATP

Kim Clijsters' first tournament since her comeback ended with a QF loss in Cincinnati to world no. 1 Safina, a great effort. Clijsters looks like a sure bet to return to the top five & be a Slam contender again. If only her fellow Belgian Justine Henin is now tempted to come out of retirement, it would be fantastic for the womens' game.

Andy Muray has a chance today to overtake Nadal as world no. 2. Rafa lost in the Montreal QFs to del Potro, Murray plays Tsonga (who beat Federer in the quarters) in the semi, if AM wins he'll be the new world no. 2.

It's All Over Now

Liverpool's chances of the Premiership were surely finished by the 2-0 defeat at Boro yesterday. Man U still have to play them & Arsenal, & maybe Man City could pull off a shock in the derby game. But it would take one of the biggest chokes in sporting history for Fergie's team to blow it now. Benitez's rant (about officials supposedly favouring Fergie & Utd) seems to have backfired spectacularly. Apart from the fortunate win over Chelsea, their league form since his outburst has been mediocre. So now, for another season, Liverpool have all their eggs in the Champions League basket. Another team who have lost the plot in the league, with their only chance of silverware in the cup competitions, is Arsenal. Early in the season they beat Everton 3-0, & no-one could imagine they would finish below Everton in the league. But after five consecutive league draws, the Gunners are now only two points ahead of them.
I expect Arsenal, Chelsea & Liverpool will all hold their fist leg leads & progress to the Champions League QFs. Man U battered Inter in the first half of the 1st leg & Inter did well to get a scoreless draw. Surely United, with so many match winners in Ronaldo, Rooney, Berbatov etc will join their Premiership counterparts in the next round.But Mourinho has pulled off upsets in the UCL, & at Old Trafford, before...

Six Nations

I had expected the title would be decided by the final round of matches. But now (assuming Ireland defeat the Scots) it will be an Irish, not a Welsh, Grand Slam on the line. It is surely no coincidence that Brian O'Driscoll has rediscovered his best form. He scored a try & drop goal yesterday, & made a great burst for his try in the upset win over the French. Ireland famously have done the Grand Slam only once (1948). France though still have an outside chance of the title after their win over Wales on Friday. Ireland must be favourites, but it could all come down to points difference, & Wales, who have home advantage in the last game against the Irish, can spoil the Irish party..

Football Failures

End of season WTA & ATP Championships


Henin defeated Sharapova in the WTA Championship final in a match lasting three & a half hours. Henin hasn't lost since losing from a set up to Bartoli at Wimbledon, a 25-match win streak. As well as being arguably the most talented female player, the stats prove Henin is the best too.

The end of the ATP season saw a return to form for David Nalbandian. He showed his potential by reaching the Wimbledon final in 2002, and has made the semis of the other 3 Slams- French (04, 06) Aus (2006) & US (03). He had struggled for form this season, but incredibly he won back-to back Masters titles in Paris & Madrid, beating both Federer & Nadal twice. Andy Murray did very well to be in contention to qualify for the Masters Cup, considering the period he lost to injury (Wimbledon & US Open) & consequent loss of opportunity to pick up ranking points.



The ATP Masters Cup was business as usual for the Fed Express, although Fernando Gonzalez beat Federer in the round-robin stage. When his forehand is in the groove, Gonzo is unstoppable, but he is erratic. End of season tiredness can lead to unexpected defeats in this tournament. Novak Djokovic has had an excellent year, but lost all three matches to be eliminated at the group stage. Federer comfortably defeated Roddick & Ferrer in the semi & final respectively, and the question remains whether Nadal can challenge him for the no. 1 ranking in 2008. I expect Roger to be top of the pile again this time next year.



Euro 2008 qualifying


Scotland coming third in their group was a glorious failure. Not so for England. In a previous post I had predicted Scotland would qualify. Unfortunately their loss 2-0 way to Georgia has proved to be a killer blow. Their qualifying group was an incredibly tough draw, with both France & Italy in the top 5 of FIFA's rankings. Still, they did the double over the French, have improved their seeding for future tournaments, & restored Scotland's reputation in world football.
England got what they deserved against Croatia. The only tactic was the long punt up to Crouch. It was the same old story for England- without Rooney, they struggle for creativity. Wright-Philips did well in the first-half, but then made way for Becks. Joe Cole can beat opponents one-on-one, but he had an off-day. The failure to qualify could be a blessing in disguise though. The FA now have the opportunity to recruit a world-class coach like Fabio Capello, Marcello Lippi, or Mourinho. All are proven winners at the top level. Only Lippi has managed a national side, but the other two have extensive Champions League experience.
So, none of the Home Nations or the Irish will be represented at Euro 2008. Northern Ireland had some excellent results, beating Spain, Sweden & Denmark; & David Healy finished as the top scorer in the entire quaifying competition with 13 goals. Wales & ROI were disappointing, although the Welsh finished with an encouraging away draw against the Germans.

Triumph & Despair

Euro 2008 Quals

England 3-0 Russia

I had thought it might be a cagey game, but England played superbly & Russia were totally outclassed.

Quite a few pundits (& some work colleagues) are now saying McClaren should stick now with this winning team, I disagree. We played well, but that's not to say you can't change the team & they could play even better. Rooney can hold the ball up as well as Heskey, though he can't match his aerial prowess. The Roonster is much more of a goal threat though, can drop deep to link the play, & is capable of surging runs as well as being a superb passer. Gareth Barry was a revelation, and could be the answer to the conundrum of whether Lampard & Gerrard play together- he plays instead of Lamps.

France 0-1 Scotland

Scotland had another superb victory over the French. They still have tough games to come v Italy & Ukraine, but they are both at Hampden. I reckon the Scots can get the points required to qualify, especially as teams level on points are separated by their head-to-head record as the primary tie-breaker.

US Open Tennis

Federer duly beat Djokovic, but it was very tight with two tie-break sets. Rog held his nerve better on the big points. Federer has now incredibly won 8 out of the last 10 Slams. Its conceivable he could suffer a barren spell- Sampras went two years before winning his final Slam, the '02 US Open. Surely he can't repeat winning 3 out of 4 Slams again next year ? I would guess that he breaks Pete's record of 14 some time in 2009( he needs two more to draw level).

RWC

England 0 South Africa 36

The world champions were humiliated as the Springboks recorded a crushing shut-out victory. Jason Robinson, after limping out of the game with a torn hamstring, has now probably played his last competitive game, sadly. He had been England's most dangerous attacking threat on the night. South Africa were exceptional with their kicking, time & again finding touch, & pushing England back. England still have a chance to reach the knock-out phase, but on this form will be eliminated. Their decision-making was poor, and they missed chances when near the try-line to disturb the scoreboard. They seemed to have lost the ability to "Think Correctly under Pressure" (T-CUP, as described in Clive Woodward's Winning). It is incredible that the defending champions have suffered such a decline-this was the biggest margin of defeat they have suffered in a RWC tournament.