Tennis Season Predictions

Who can capture the major titles in 2017?

On the men’s side, this blogger feels there are 3 categories of players who can be ruled out: GOATs, youngsters & spoilers.

It looks unlikely that Federer & Nadal can add to their major haul. Both GOAT contenders have lost their aura & have suffered with injury lay-offs, six months in the Fed's case.

One of Nadal’s strengths used to be coming through tough 5 setters. Over the last 16 months he’s been on the wrong end of the score, with notable losses to Fognini & Pouille (both US Open) and Verdasco (Aus Open).

Alexander Zverev is perhaps the most promising of the younger generation (Thiem, Krygios, Edmund, Fritz etc.) The German may need a couple more years before he can challenge in the Slams, but should make top 15 in the rankings this year.

Then there are the spoilers, who can do damage to other contenders, but who may fall short of lifting the trophies.

Nishikori must surely improve his serve to have a chance of winning a major

Krygios is up to career high rank of 13 but has yet to go past a major QF and question marks remain over his temperament.

Finally then, the select group of possible Slam winners, who I would rank in this order: Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Del Potro and Raonic.

On the women’s tour, who can challenge Kerber at the top?

Kvitova is now out with hand injury, Azarenka is on maternity leave.

Will age catch up with Serena Williams? To date she has seemed largely immune to the ravages of time, & has that unmatched serve to get her out of trouble.

Radwanska is perhaps the best tactician on the WTA tour but ‘The Professor’ lacks the power game to capture the top honours.

Halep has finished the last three years in the top four of the rankings & the Romanian can again push for no. 1

Muguruza lifted the French crown last year, but then bombed out in round two at both the US Open & SW19. I expect her to be more consistent this season & be the closest challenger to Kerber.

Risk & Reward

It was one of the all-time great underdog victories. Japan’s previous world cup record read P22, W1 D1 L 22. The opposition, South Africa, are two-time world cup winners.

The lead changed hands four times in the first half, but according to the usual script Japan would succumb and the Springboks would come though after being given an almighty scare. On 44 minutes, South Africa had a six point lead, & by the 63^rd it was seven, but Japan refused to yield. On 79 minutes, trailing by 3, surely they would go for the penalty & take the draw? No, they had the guts to risk going for the win & were rewarded with a sensational victory.   

 

Novak Djokovic is on course to have one of the standout seasons of recent years. It ranks with McEnroe in 1984 (W82 L3), Federer 2006 (92-5), Nadal 2010 & his own stellar season of 2011.

Worryingly for his rivals in the indoor season , the Serb hasn’t lost on indoor (hard) court for 31 matches. Among his contemporaries only Wawrinka , Murray & Nishikori  look capable of beating him in a best-of five match. Of the younger guns, Coric is not yet at his level, Dimitrov has had an off year, & Krygios is too flaky.

At the US Open Murray ran into Kevin Anderson in the best form of his career, but still has a massive prize to play for. GB will play Belgium in the Davis Cup final after Murray won three rubbers for the second tie in succession.

 

Great credit is due to Wayne Rooney for breaking Charlton’s England goal record. He’s also closing in on the Man U club record.

The Final Analysis

Underdogs shine but class tells in the end

Serena, upset by Muguruza at Roland Garros, made another early exit at Wimbledon. She will still start as favourite & no. 1 seed for the US Open, and needs just one slam to draw level with Navratilova & Evert.

In the final Kvitova was awesome, beating Bouchard in less than an hour. The challenge for the Czech now is to get the consistency that she’s lacked in the past with her high-risk game style. Bouchard will contest more Slam finals.

There were big wins for young pretenders.  Krygios had swagger & nerves to take out Nadal, Dimitrov beat Murray in straights. The old pecking order was still intact for the final though. The previous dominance of the Big Four is evidenced by it being the 1st Slam final since the 2009 US Open not to feature either Nadal or Murray.

Many experts, including this blogger, wanted Federer to retire last year after early Slam exits to Stakhovsky & Robredo. This year has been a welcome return to top form. It took Djokovic to stop him in a final of the highest quality. As long he can continue to perform at a high level he will keep playing. As the saying goes, you’re a long time retired.

It was the most exciting World Cup since 1986 for my money. Spain & Italy didn’t make the  knockouts, but unfancied Costa Rica won their group. Holland’s 5-1 spanking of Spain seemed like it would be the shock result of the tournament, until Brazil’s astonishing capitulation to Germany in the semi.

Froome & Contador were the pre-race favourites for Le Tour, but both had to abandon after a series of heavy crashes. Vincenzo Nibali took full advantage. He won by more than seven minutes, with four stage wins, & was never put in difficulties.