Red Alert

A double bill for Jan & Feb.

Stan Wawrinka always had the talent. The Aussie Open showed he now has developed the nerve / belief to pull out the wins in a major against the two top-ranked players in the world.

Britain hadn’t beaten USA in the Davis Cup since 1935, & now play Italy in the QFs. James Ward, like Dan Evans, again proved he can deliver on the big occasions for his county, defeating much higher-ranked opposition.

It was the battle of the meanest defence in the NFL v the highest scoring offence in the Superbowl. The Seahawks crushed favourites Denver 43-8 for their first title. Peyton Manning is a future hall of famer, & had set TD & yardage records in the regular season, but his post-season record is a blemish on his illustrious career.It’s not news to say that Man. United are having a disastrous season by their lofty standards. Losing to Sunderland in the semi of the League Cup was the previous low point, but a new nadir was the abject performance in the UCL r16 first leg v Olympiakos. They still have an outside chance to progress with the return leg at Old Trafford.

The rapid decline of the champions is something of a mystery. On current form they may emulate Blackburn who were 7th in ‘95-96 season, the most recent occasion that the defending champions finished so low in the league.  

United have mostly the same team as last season that won title at a canter, though their rivals underperformed. The summer transfers have strengthened others (City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs), but the Reds have stagnated.

As the bad results have piled up, the fear factor has gone and opponents scent blood. There are weak links in defence & the midfield is a pale shadow of the glory days of Keane, Beckham, Scholes & Giggs.

 

Performance of the Month

 

Seahawks.

England Eclipsed

Champions League

With Chelsea & Arsenal facing first leg deficits of 3-1 & 4-0 respectively, it's looking highly likely there will be no English team in the QFs for the fist time since 1996. From 2007-9, English teams made up three of the four semi-finalists, with an-all English final in 2008. United were also runners-up to Barca last year & in 2009. So why are English clubs no longer dominant ? The other side of the coin is the opposition getting stronger. Barcelona have set a new level of excellence in recent years, & Real Madrid are perhaps Barca's closest challengers. So last season Barca accounted for Arsenal as well as Man U, while Madrid knocked out Spurs. In the last few seasons English sides have had the better of the Italians but this year Serie A have turned the tables, assuming the London clubs can't pull off miracle comebacks.

The question is whether this is set to last, or will English teams mount a strong challenge next season. I think they will. Man U will surely bounce back after their nightmare European season, although they need reinforcements in midfield for the vets: Giggs & the unretired Scholes. Man City you would expect to have a decent run after a difficult first campaign. Spurs are the only other team you can be fairly sure will qualify, with the 4th place being far too close to call at the moment. If Redknapp takes the England national team post, I wouldn't like to tip how well Spurs will do until seeing their new manager.

No Country For Old Men

Once you get past a certain age, reflexes & stamina begin to diminish. The tipping point is typically considered to be 30. At the top level of sport, any such weakness is usually ruthlessly exposed. Outfield footballers rarely play on in the top divisions past the age of 35(Stanley Matthews excepted). Ryan Giggs, at 34, is one oldie still going strong having played over 30 times to date this season for Man Utd. One-on-one sports like boxing & tennis are interesting cases. Tennis is perhaps the ultimate example of top level sport being a young person's game. It's rare to win a Slam past the age of 30, and success is possible at a young age- Becker was 17 when he first won Wimbledon, Hingis won there & in Australia at 16. Sampras won his last Slam aged 31, as did Connors (both US Open). Some notable exceptions: Navratilova was 33 when she won her last Wimbledon singles title, & even won the mixed at age 46 ! Agassi was no. 1 in the world at the age of 33, when he won his last Slam in Australia.

Boxing is also generally considered a young man's game.Normally though, it takes time for young fighters to build up their stamina gradually, starting with four-round contests & eventually working their way up to 8, 10 or 12 rounds if they reach championship level. In boxing, a good young prospect on the rise will nearly always beat a veteran who has suffered the effects of too many gruelling ring battles. However, fighters with good defensive skills, who can avoid taking too much punishment, can prolong their careers-Winky Wright springs to mind (age 36, a former champ, currently ranked 3rd at middleweight). Two outstanding champions fight each other in two weeks time. Joe Calzaghe is universally recognised as the best super-middle in the world, Bernard Hopkins is considered by most experts to be the best at light-heavy. Calzaghe is 36, Hopkins is 43.

Roger Federer must be on the slide-he lost to Roddick this week. Before the defeat, Federer had a 15-1 win-loss record against the American. Is this age-related, or just a run of bad form ? Federer is only 26 after all. Probably only with the benefit of hindsight at the end of the season will it be possible to make an assessment of whether its a decline or a blip. I favour the latter.

Man United

Man U are looking ominous for both the Prem & the ECL. Ronaldo must be a leading contender with the likes of Messi & Kaka for the European & World player of the year awards. His scoring record as a winger this season is sensational. No Premiership player has ever won the World Player award, if Ronnie gets the nod it would be further evidence of the growing strength of the world's richest league. Unless Roma pull off a miracle at Old Trafford, their likely opponents in the CL semi are Barca, who looked very shaky in the second half against Schalke. Chelsea should be able to overturn their one goal deficit against Fenerbahce at Stamford Bridge, & Liverpool are slight favourites v the Gunners after nicking the away goal at the Emirates. Liverpool were fortunate not to concede a pen for Kuyt's tug on Hleb, but Arsenal should have created more chances from their dominance of possession.