French Open predictions

The top men’s seeds, Murray & Djokovic, have not been in top form this season. Neither has Wawrinka-until this week, with the Swiss is in today’s Geneva final. However Stan is a big game player, & in his last two majors made semis at Aus & was the champion in US. So I fancy Stan the Man from the top half of the draw. In the bottom half, I can see Thiem getting past the Djoker in the quarters before falling to the eventual winner & current captain of my fantasy league team, Mallorca’s finest, Mr Rafa Nadal.

The women’s draw has been described as wide open by many, including your humble blogger. World no. 1 Kerber has been off the boil this season, Serena is off on maternity leave. Simona Halep won in Madrid, but may not have recovered from rolling her ankle in last week’s Rome final. The Russian veteran Kuznetsova has had her best results in the majors here, & can make another good run this year. No. 4 seed Garbi Muguruza is another lover of the red dirt, & despite her patchy form, she’s my pick to retain her title.   

Federer Rewrites the Rule Book

Federer re-wrote the manual on shots that are possible on the tennis court. Nadal was on the receiving end yesterday of a half-volleyed winner from the baseline.

The conventional wisdom was that Federer not supposed to be able to win 5-setters against the younger guys, let alone the three he won in Melbourne to pick up the title. 

Improvements in sports science have allowed players to extend their careers, & winning titles in their 30’s may become more common, as Wawrinka did at the US & French Opens. However Federer’s Aussie Open win at 35 is clearly an exceptional feat. 

He was supposed to have of a chance of winning another Slam only at Wimbledon, as he’s still considered one of the best movers on a grass court and has a formidable career win percentage on the green stuff. He had already disproved this theory by reaching the 2015 US Open final.

The conventional wisdom was that you don’t win a tournament, let alone a Slam, after a six month lay-off. Roger had other ideas.

Serena Williams continues to extend her own formidable haul of majors and GOAT status. It was a disappointment she didn’t face tougher competition. Some possible rivals are out of the picture, with Azarenka on maternity leave & Kvitova’s hand injury. Other rivals in Melbourne underperformed- Kerber & Muguruza, or were injured (Halep).

Tennis Season Predictions

Who can capture the major titles in 2017?

On the men’s side, this blogger feels there are 3 categories of players who can be ruled out: GOATs, youngsters & spoilers.

It looks unlikely that Federer & Nadal can add to their major haul. Both GOAT contenders have lost their aura & have suffered with injury lay-offs, six months in the Fed's case.

One of Nadal’s strengths used to be coming through tough 5 setters. Over the last 16 months he’s been on the wrong end of the score, with notable losses to Fognini & Pouille (both US Open) and Verdasco (Aus Open).

Alexander Zverev is perhaps the most promising of the younger generation (Thiem, Krygios, Edmund, Fritz etc.) The German may need a couple more years before he can challenge in the Slams, but should make top 15 in the rankings this year.

Then there are the spoilers, who can do damage to other contenders, but who may fall short of lifting the trophies.

Nishikori must surely improve his serve to have a chance of winning a major

Krygios is up to career high rank of 13 but has yet to go past a major QF and question marks remain over his temperament.

Finally then, the select group of possible Slam winners, who I would rank in this order: Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Del Potro and Raonic.

On the women’s tour, who can challenge Kerber at the top?

Kvitova is now out with hand injury, Azarenka is on maternity leave.

Will age catch up with Serena Williams? To date she has seemed largely immune to the ravages of time, & has that unmatched serve to get her out of trouble.

Radwanska is perhaps the best tactician on the WTA tour but ‘The Professor’ lacks the power game to capture the top honours.

Halep has finished the last three years in the top four of the rankings & the Romanian can again push for no. 1

Muguruza lifted the French crown last year, but then bombed out in round two at both the US Open & SW19. I expect her to be more consistent this season & be the closest challenger to Kerber.

Tennis Title Picks

My predictions for Roland Garros:

Dominic Thiem has one of the best clay records over the past year, but has yet to prove his pedigree at the very highest level. He's won a 500 & four 250 level tournaments, but has made just one Masters quarter-final. Nadal looks to have a very tough draw. He is in Djokovic's half & could face Fognini & Thiem in the 3rd & 4th rounds.

Murray's improvement on the red dirt is such that he has the best win percentage on clay  for the past 52 weeks. The Scot may have to get past reigning champ Wawrinka in the semis, & after that the Serb may be an obstacle too far in the final.

Who can stop Serena as she takes another crack at equalling Graf's record of 22 Slams ? Vika Azarenka was tipped by Henman. Her record on hard courts is stellar, but her clay court resume is far less impressive, & she is in Serena's half.

From the lower half, Halep & Garbine Muguruza would be my picks for the semi-finals. I have a feeling Muguruza can frustrate Williams and claim her maiden Slam.

Stan The Man

Stan Wawrinka produced a thrilling display of attacking tennis to deny Djokovic the full set of Slam titles. Stan’s single-handed backhand is rated by many as the best in the game, but what was so impressive was his ability to come with up the goods under the most intense pressure. It was a welcome victory for those fans, your blogger included, who prefer ‘first strike’ attacking tennis to the counter-punching style of Djokovic.

Wawrinka has finally found the key to going deep in Majors late in his career. On the ITV commentary Courier mentioned a great stat illustrating this. In 34 attempts he had never made a Slam semi, but has now done it four times in the past seven Majors. Much credit must go to his coach Magnus Norman. As noted in a previous blog, Stan aways had the ability, now he has the mental strength, and conditioning, to back it up.

No less impressive was the 20th slam for Serena. Even when she’s suffering with the flu, Williams still had an extra gear when faced with adversity, coming from a set down four times en route to the title. She will surely surpass Steffi Graf’s haul of 22 majors.

After a nine year drought, Arsenal have two trophies in two years. They repeated their FA Cup victory and look like genuine title contenders. League success may depend on Wenger ending the hex Mourinho has over him. Jose’s team were accused of grinding out boring wins towards the end of the season, but still ended up 2^nd highest scorers.

Brief mentions for:

 Stuart Bingham, like Wawrinka, has found success late in his career

James Anderson, record English wicket-taker

Floyd Mayweather, no stranger to success & still peerless.

Bournemouth, deserved second division champions, scoring 98 goals, with Eddie Howe a candidate for manager of the season

Perspective

We like to obsess over stats or pontificate about why England’s backs lack creativity. It puts a downer on our weekend if our team lose to their hated rivals. The tragic death of Phil Hughes of course puts things in perspective.

The capacity of Bernard Hopkins to defy age, and often much younger opposition, has been superhuman. Until last month.  Kovalev won every round of their unification bout, & B-Hop took heavy punishment in the 12th. You hope he retires now, with his senses still intact.

Roger Federer, especially in the early part of his career, also seemed to have a superhuman ability- to avoid injury. Latterly he’s not been immune, and after a gruelling semi versus Wawrinka was not fit for the final of Masters. A few days rest for his back did the trick however, & this time he was teamed with Stan the Man for the Davis Cup final. Federer split his singles matches, but the back was strong enough for him to partner Stan to win the doubles rubber & the Cup on the Sunday. Only Olympic singles gold is now missing from Roger’s CV.

Talking of obsessing over statistics. Real Madrid are currently on a club record 17 match win streak. Los Blancos had a patchy start to La Liga but clearly Ancelotti has now found the right blend for his Galacticos.

Hala Madrid

It looked like Liverpool had built up an unstoppable momentum. Chelsea, the arch-pragmatists, had other ideas and upset them & the romantics who thought the Reds deserved it this year, ensuring the title race will go right down to the wire.  

Other things that have caught my eye these past two months

Real will go for La Decima in an all-Madrid final, while their biggest rivals, Barca, failed to make the semis for the first time in seven years.

Bayern won the Bundesliga with seven games to spare, but have since lost focus & were humiliated by Real in the UCL semi-final.

Man City picked up the first piece of major silverware, the League Cup.

BOD retired in style as Ireland won the 6 Nations.

Djokovic did the Indian Wells/ Miami double for the 2^nd time. Rafa has proved to be fallible on clay, losing twice to fellow Spaniards. The resurgence of Federer continues, reaching the finals of Monaco & Indian Wells. Wawrinka, the surprise package of the year, won again in Monaco & he tops the YTD rankings.

British hopes in the Davis Cup were ended by Italy in the QFs.

The ageless Bernard Hopkins who won another title belt at the age of 49.

Red Alert

A double bill for Jan & Feb.

Stan Wawrinka always had the talent. The Aussie Open showed he now has developed the nerve / belief to pull out the wins in a major against the two top-ranked players in the world.

Britain hadn’t beaten USA in the Davis Cup since 1935, & now play Italy in the QFs. James Ward, like Dan Evans, again proved he can deliver on the big occasions for his county, defeating much higher-ranked opposition.

It was the battle of the meanest defence in the NFL v the highest scoring offence in the Superbowl. The Seahawks crushed favourites Denver 43-8 for their first title. Peyton Manning is a future hall of famer, & had set TD & yardage records in the regular season, but his post-season record is a blemish on his illustrious career.It’s not news to say that Man. United are having a disastrous season by their lofty standards. Losing to Sunderland in the semi of the League Cup was the previous low point, but a new nadir was the abject performance in the UCL r16 first leg v Olympiakos. They still have an outside chance to progress with the return leg at Old Trafford.

The rapid decline of the champions is something of a mystery. On current form they may emulate Blackburn who were 7th in ‘95-96 season, the most recent occasion that the defending champions finished so low in the league.  

United have mostly the same team as last season that won title at a canter, though their rivals underperformed. The summer transfers have strengthened others (City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs), but the Reds have stagnated.

As the bad results have piled up, the fear factor has gone and opponents scent blood. There are weak links in defence & the midfield is a pale shadow of the glory days of Keane, Beckham, Scholes & Giggs.

 

Performance of the Month

 

Seahawks.

Going The Distance

The packed tournament calendar is a continual complaint from the top tennis pros, and to avoid injuries & burn-out their schedules have to be carefully managed. While some of the top players, most notably Federer & Murray, skip Davis Cup duty , others give their all. The Davis Cup doubles rubber Czech Republic  v Switzerland was proof of this. Berdych & Rosol beat Wawrinka & Chiudinelli after a gruelling 7 hours 2 minutes, 24-22 in the fifth set. It was the longest  ATP match ever, bar Isner-Mahut.  Incredibly Wawrinka and Berdych still had the energy to play their singles rubber the next day.

Rafa Nadal made a successful return to action after his injury long lay-off,  with a runner-up spot in Vina del Mar & winning in Sao Paulo. He plays Ferrer in the Acapulco final today, the toughest opponent he’s faced since his comeback, should be a tough test.

Performance of the Month

The Czech/Swiss doubles foursome.

Honourable mention:

Gareth Bale. His recent scoring record (seven in Feb) speaks for itself.