Sunday 30 September 2007

Underdogs

Carling Cup Round 3

It seems that only Arsenal can play the kids & still win. They proved it last season when they reached the League Cup final. This week they did it again, beating a nearly full-strength Newcastle side. Meanwhile, on Wednesday night a largely youth United side lost to Coventry despite bringing starting with first-teamers O'Shea, Nani & Anderson; Carrick & Brown came on as subs.

In recent years some Premiership sides, especially the 'Big Four' clubs, have treated the Carling Cup as almost an unwelcome distraction, & used it as an opportunity to play some of their fringe players. No doubt the teams still involved in the Champions League will continue this policy.

RWC Upsets

In the Rugby World Cup there seems to be far less chance of a big upset than in the equivalent football tournament. South Korea reached the World Cup semi-finals in 2002. (Also Greece won Euro 2004 as hugely unfancied underdogs) Japan's draw against Canada was hailed as a fantastic result for them. Fiji did beat Wales, but generally, Rugby Union has so many set plays that the stronger side can keep up constant pressure, and it’s much harder to prevent a score. The weaker side has to compete at every scrum, line-out, ruck & maul. In football, the defending goalie can play a blinder &/or the strikers have an off day, & the minnows can get a draw or even sneak a win. So it seems unlikely that Fiji, for example, can make the semis of the current RWC.

Saturday 22 September 2007

Farewell to the Special One

The English game has lost its most colourful manger since Brian Clough.

Jose Mourinho will be sadly missed, especially by journalists, as he provided such fantastic copy, starting with the famous first press conference. It's often not quoted in full, even by the Times/Guardian/BBC etc:


Again, please don't call me arrogant, because what I'm saying is true. I'm European champion, so I'm not one (pause) of the bottle. I think I'm a special one.



link to Sky Sports video

http://news.sky.com/skynews/video/videoplayer/0,,31200-1284939,00.html

Another great piece of Mourinho showmanship was the 2005 press conference for a round of16 Champs League tie, when he cheekily (& correctly) predicted the Barca line-up (& peeved Frank Riijkard by depriving him his right to announce his own team ).

Today Mourinho said how he felt he had 'another family at the training ground'. No wonder Drogba was (allegedly) in tears when Jose said his goodbyes to the squad at Cobham.

He has been criticised for favouring a pragmatic playing style, but two league titles, an FA Cup, two ECL semi-finals & two League Cups in three seasons, is a fantastic return, even allowing for the amount spent on players. Unfortunately Mr Abramovich wanted his team to play beautiful, attacking football. The warning signs of his disastisfaction were evident from his early exit from Chelsea's Villa Park defeat. Mourinho however, has presided over the most successful period in Chelsea's history, including breaking Liverpool's record for the most successive top-flight home games without defeat.

Even his fiercest managerial rivals have spoken today & yesterday of the loss to the Premiership. Occasional gracelessness in defeat is the only negative of Mourinho's time in England.

His first English fixture was a 1-0 home win over Man U. His successor, Avram Grant, will play the same opponents at Old Trafford in his first game in charge tomorrow.

Saturday 15 September 2007

Triumph & Despair

Euro 2008 Quals

England 3-0 Russia

I had thought it might be a cagey game, but England played superbly & Russia were totally outclassed.

Quite a few pundits (& some work colleagues) are now saying McClaren should stick now with this winning team, I disagree. We played well, but that's not to say you can't change the team & they could play even better. Rooney can hold the ball up as well as Heskey, though he can't match his aerial prowess. The Roonster is much more of a goal threat though, can drop deep to link the play, & is capable of surging runs as well as being a superb passer. Gareth Barry was a revelation, and could be the answer to the conundrum of whether Lampard & Gerrard play together- he plays instead of Lamps.


France 0-1 Scotland

Scotland had another superb victory over the French. They still have tough games to come v Italy & Ukraine, but they are both at Hampden. I reckon the Scots can get the points required to qualify, especially as teams level on points are separated by their head-to-head record as the primary tie-breaker.

US Open Tennis

Federer duly beat Djokovic, but it was very tight with two tie-break sets. Rog held his nerve better on the big points. Federer has now incredibly won 8 out of the last 10 Slams. Its conceivable he could suffer a barren spell- Sampras went two years before winning his final Slam, the '02 US Open. Surely he can't repeat winning 3 out of 4 Slams again next year ? I would guess that he breaks Pete's record of 14 some time in 2009( he needs two more to draw level).

RWC


England 0 South Africa 36

The world champions were humiliated as the Springboks recorded a crushing shut-out victory. Jason Robinson, after limping out of the game with a torn hamstring, has now probably played his last competitive game, sadly. He had been England's most dangerous attacking threat on the night. South Africa were exceptional with their kicking, time & again finding touch, & pushing England back. England still have a chance to reach the knock-out phase, but on this form will be eliminated. Their decision-making was poor, and they missed chances when near the try-line to disturb the scoreboard. They seemed to have lost the ability to "Think Correctly under Pressure" (T-CUP, as described in Clive Woodward's Winning). It is incredible that the defending champions have suffered such a decline-this was the biggest margin of defeat they have suffered in a RWC tournament.

Sunday 9 September 2007

Predictions- RWC, ECQ etc.

Football:ECQ


As expected, England were too strong for Israel on Saturday, with a comfortable 3-0 win. However, I think they will come unstuck against the master tactician, Guus Hiddink, when they play Russia on Wednesday.


RWC


Even before Argentina's shock upset of France on Friday, I expected an All Blacks-South Africa final. The Springboks play their first pool game v Samoa today. Ireland are the best Home Nations side but will need to top the 'Group of Death' to avoid NZ in the QFs, a tall order, especially as Argentina have a good record against them. England, Scotland & Wales can hope for the QFs at best in my opinion, but I'd be delighted to be proved wrong.


US Open Tennis


It was a statistical quirk that no-one had beaten both Williams sisters in the same Slam & gone on to win it. Henin dispatched that & Svetlana Kuznetsova in straight sets yesterday. It was the 7th Slam for the woman with the most beautiful backhand in the game, men included. Another player with the tournament victories to match his aesthetic appeal, is of course Mr Federer. Novak Djokovic faces the daunting prospect of preventing him winning his fourth consecutive US Open today, as i predicted in my 14 Aug post; though it hardly takes a genius to tip Roger these days.
Andy Murray will be disappointed with his 3rd-round exit to the Korean, Lee Hyung-taik.

Thursday 6 September 2007

Platini's Proposals

Michel Platini has been discussing recently his latest attempt to reform the structure of the Champions League. Platini's plan is to give the 4th Champions League place to the FA Cup winners, instead of the team finishing 4th in the League. Picture this scenario, however. A lower division team has an easy route to the final, like Milwall in 2004. They are playing a team which has already qualified for the ECL by virtue of a top-three finish. The lower division team loses the final, but would be eligible for the ECL spot as their opponents have already qualified. The minnows would have no chance in the Champions' League & most probably would be knocked out tin the qualifying round. A team that finishes in 4th place in the league nowadays would have a strong squad, & would be equipped to compete in the ECL. Platini's proposal would deny them the chance.

His attempts to make the ECL more egalitarian should be applauded, but he is always likely to be thwarted by the G14(the lobbying group of the richest European clubs). The problem at the moment is that the rich continue to get richer, thanks to the massive TV revenues from continually qualifying for the group stages of the ECL. At the moment in the Premier League it looks unlikely that anyone apart from the Big Four will qualify for the ECL, & that is clearly not good for the competitiveness of the English top division.

I hope though that the shock of Chelsea's defeat at Villa (last Sunday) could be repeated, & the gap between the 'Big Four' & the rest is reduced. I tend to think it indicates a lack of competition when a team finishes with 90+ points, as in 2004, '05 & '06.