The Belgians

I'm feeling smug: I tipped Kim Clijsters for the top 5 & to be a Slam contender in my 18 Aug blog. I never expected her to win the US Open, but who did, in only her third comeback tournament ? I was also musing how great it would be if Henin came back as well. Guess what ? This week Henin called a press conference to announce her comeback. Henin said Clijster's’ success was only a small part of her decision to unretire, though announcing it only a week after the US Open suggests it played a much larger part in her decision than she is letting on.

Fakers & Cheats

No-one likes to lose, from amateur to professional. When the desire or need to win is overwhelming then the temptation to cheat can increase, but the viewing public expects professional sport to be played in a fair spirit. This week has seen two high profile cases when the line has been crossed.

The Harlequins 'Bloodgate' scandal was a premeditated (though bungled) attempt to cheat which was planned by the Director of Rugby, Dean Richards. The ERC hearing even revealed that the same blood capsule ruse had been tried by Harlequins twice before but hadn't worked as the capsules were swallowed & dropped respectively.

I'm an Arsenal fan but I thought Eduardo definitely dived against Celtic. Diving has been in the game for years- Franny Lee springs to mind-but diving seems more prevalent now because of the widespread TV coverage. UEFA' s retrospective action was justified but will they now apply similar punishments to all instances of cheating & violent conduct which are missed by the officials in games under their jurisdiction ?

New Season

My predictions for the Premiership:

This year again, only the Big Four can win the title. Man City's squad seems top-heavy with strikers & they will need to massively improve on their away form from last season. They will get some good results but i can't see them being consistent enough. Arsenal have talent & the promise of youngsters like Wilshere for the future. Their midfield looks too lightweight to me, they need someone in the Viera mould who can boss the midfield. Liverpool will up at the top again this year, but they lack adequate cover for Torres. Which leaves the usual suspects: Man U & Chelsea. Man U are bound to miss Ronaldo's goals & assists, though they will hardly be struggling for goals with Rooney, Berbatov & Owen. Chelsea can grind out the title, but it will be close, by not more than 5 points.

WTA & ATP

Kim Clijsters' first tournament since her comeback ended with a QF loss in Cincinnati to world no. 1 Safina, a great effort. Clijsters looks like a sure bet to return to the top five & be a Slam contender again. If only her fellow Belgian Justine Henin is now tempted to come out of retirement, it would be fantastic for the womens' game.

Andy Muray has a chance today to overtake Nadal as world no. 2. Rafa lost in the Montreal QFs to del Potro, Murray plays Tsonga (who beat Federer in the quarters) in the semi, if AM wins he'll be the new world no. 2.

Tour De Force

Tour de France

This is one of the most exciting tours for years. Recently drug scandals have sapped my enthusiasm, but this year was much anticipated with the return of Armstrong, and it hasn't disappointed. Armstrong is not in the same form as in his record seven tour wins but is certainly capable of a top ten finish. Contador remains the favourite. Mark Cavendish has demonstrated again he's clearly the best sprinter in the world, & if he can survive the Alps must be favourite to hold on to the green jersey. Bradley Wiggins has been a revelation, showing himself to be one of the rarest of species, a Brit who can live with the top contenders over the high mountain peaks. Wiggins is 5th in GC, if he can hang on in the Alps, he is excellent bet for a podium finish with his time-trialing ability.

1936 & All That

The 73 year wait for a successor to Fred Perry will go on for another year.

As Paul Hayward wrote in the Guardian, "Henman was a possible. Murray is a probable".
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2009/jul/03/wimbledon-andy-murray-andy-roddick

Unfortunately for British fans Roddick pulled off an improbable victory.

Roddick was a revelation. This was not the same player whose one-dimensional game the 17-year old Murray demolished in straight sets in the 3rd round in 2006. Roddick's serve & forehand have always been his big weapons. But he had showed in his last match against Hewitt how much his backhand has improved since teaming up with Larry Stefanki. His net play against Murray was also much improved, previously his volleying ability had been suspect.
Murray hit more winners, surprisingly more aces, & made less errors. But he lost the match, with the American winning two of his sets on the tie-break.Perhaps the most important stat was Roddick's 1st serve percentage of 75 %. Murray could manage only 52%.
British fans will hope Murray can make another strong showing at the US Open.

In the other semi, Federer comfortably took out Haas in straight sets. Incredibly, he hasn't dropped a set in any of his Wimbledon semis, & has only been broken twice.
With Roddick having won only twice out of 20 matches with Roger, Fed is 8/1 on to win the final with the bookies. Federer in four.

In the Womens semis, Safina was again a massive disappointment in a major, winning only one game against Venus to make a mockery of her no. 1 ranking. Dementieva v Serena was the best ladies match of the tournament so far, Serena saving a match point before winning 8-6 in the final set.

Wimbledon 2009

Most of the British media seem to think a Murray-Federer final is practically a nailed-on certainty. However, the guys left in the draw are no gimmes. Fed is seeded to meet Djokovic in the semis, & the Djoker has beaten him the last two times they've played. I reckon Roger in four sets though. Fed faces Soderling next up in the 4th round. I was courtside for the Swede's match on Monday, & he played well, but there's nothing to suggest that Roger wont take care of him again comfortably, as he did in the French final. Karlovic is a possible QF opponent, who with his huge serve always a big threat on grass-he hit 46 aces in beating Tsonga on Friday.
Murray plays Stan Wawrinka next, who will be no pushover, although Murray seems to have gone up a level since he was last beaten by the Swiss no. 2. Thomas Berdych was very impressive yesterday beating Davydenko, & next plays Roddick, which looks like a 50-50 match.

On the womens side, the smart money has to be on another all-Williams final. Ivanovic might give Venus a tough match in the 4th round, but the Serb has been struggling with the ball toss on her serve. Sharapova's 2nd round exit wasn't a huge surprise, watching her match on Monday she was struggling with her movement. Having only recently returned from a long layoff with he shoulder injury, her match fitness should improve with increased activity.

Ronster's tips for the championship: Fed & Venus.

King of Clay Hits the Dirt

Yesterday saw perhaps the biggest upset of the sporting year with Rafael Nadal's first loss at Roland Garros. The 23rd seed, Robin Soderling, won after 3 hr 30 mins, 6-2, 6-7(2-7), 6-4, 7-6(7-2) . I was in the stands for the concluding sets when they played a five-setter (over 5(!) days due to rain delays & the schedule) at Wimbledon 2007. Then, every time it seemed Nadal had nailed the lid on the Swede's coffin, he would come back from the dead & break back.
That encounter had clearly given him the confidence that he could compete with Rafa. Incredibly, only four weeks ago, Rafa had beaten him in Rome for the loss of only one game.
Rafa made a uncharacteristic number of unforced errors, but all credit to the Swede, he was hitting his groundstrokes with great depth & power, especially the forehand, & hit an incredible 61 winners.
Obviously Nadal's exit removed a huge obstacle for the other favourites, Federer & Murray (2nd & third seeds respectively).Both still have some tough matches to reach the final: probably Del Potro in the semi for Fed (though he has a 5-0 record against him) , while Murray has Gonzalez who can be brilliant or erratic, & Davydenko a possible semi-final opponent.
The ladies' defending champion also lost yesterday, but that was not such a massive shock. Ivanovic was seeded 8th & has lost form & confidence since she took the no. 1 ranking after wining here last year. The no. 1 seed, Safina has been in awesome form, & a final between her & Serena seems likely.

Last Contract for the Hitman

It's been a mixed couple of weeks for British boxing.

Carl Froch made a superb comeback to retain his title, but Hatton was outclassed by Mannny Pacquiao.

Froch's last-round knockout almost certainly ended Jermaine Taylor's career at the top level. Taylor's distraught face after the first knockdown was pathetic in the true sense of the word, you couldnt help pity him when he was so close to victory. Having been ahead on two of the ringside scorecards going into the final round, his stamina, his Achilles heel at the top level, had once again been his undoing, as it had against Kelly Pavlik. Froch can look forward to unification fights against either the Canadian Lucien Bute, or Mikkel Kessler, probably the toughest man left in the division after Calzaghe's retirement.

Hatton should hang up the gloves now after being knocked cold for the second time. I had thought Hatton would fare better with his natural weight advantage, but Manny confirmed his status as the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet. Pacquiao can look forward to megafights with the likes of Juan Manuel Marquez and Shane Mosley, or the ultimate megafight with the now unretired Floyd Mayweather Jr.

It's All Over Now

Liverpool's chances of the Premiership were surely finished by the 2-0 defeat at Boro yesterday. Man U still have to play them & Arsenal, & maybe Man City could pull off a shock in the derby game. But it would take one of the biggest chokes in sporting history for Fergie's team to blow it now. Benitez's rant (about officials supposedly favouring Fergie & Utd) seems to have backfired spectacularly. Apart from the fortunate win over Chelsea, their league form since his outburst has been mediocre. So now, for another season, Liverpool have all their eggs in the Champions League basket. Another team who have lost the plot in the league, with their only chance of silverware in the cup competitions, is Arsenal. Early in the season they beat Everton 3-0, & no-one could imagine they would finish below Everton in the league. But after five consecutive league draws, the Gunners are now only two points ahead of them.
I expect Arsenal, Chelsea & Liverpool will all hold their fist leg leads & progress to the Champions League QFs. Man U battered Inter in the first half of the 1st leg & Inter did well to get a scoreless draw. Surely United, with so many match winners in Ronaldo, Rooney, Berbatov etc will join their Premiership counterparts in the next round.But Mourinho has pulled off upsets in the UCL, & at Old Trafford, before...

Six Nations

I had expected the title would be decided by the final round of matches. But now (assuming Ireland defeat the Scots) it will be an Irish, not a Welsh, Grand Slam on the line. It is surely no coincidence that Brian O'Driscoll has rediscovered his best form. He scored a try & drop goal yesterday, & made a great burst for his try in the upset win over the French. Ireland famously have done the Grand Slam only once (1948). France though still have an outside chance of the title after their win over Wales on Friday. Ireland must be favourites, but it could all come down to points difference, & Wales, who have home advantage in the last game against the Irish, can spoil the Irish party..

King Rafa

Apologies to my legion of readers for the delay between posts. A central heating problem had made the blogger's den all but inhabitable for the best part of a month.

Australian Open Tennis

I predicted after the US Open last year that Federer would win the title in Melbourne to draw level with Sampras on 14 Slam titles. Unfortunately Roger came up against the phenomenon otherwise known as Rafa Nadal. The conventional wisdom used to be that Nadal would struggle to win a Slam on hard courts because of the pounding the surface gives his fragile knees. That theory can be discarded. Nadal won a thrilling 4 1/2 hour match to win his first Slam on hard courts. The first four sets were played at an exceptional standard, only the fifth was a bit of a let-down. Nadal again showed his ability to hit amazing running winners: once from way behind the baseline, & another off a good deep volley were just a couple of highlights. When Nadal called for the trainer in the 3rd set, it looked like he was feeling the effects of his marathon 5 hr 14 min semi-final against Verdasco. But it was Federer who was mentally fatigued in the fifth, dropping serve twice. Against other opponents, Roger has shown a Sampras-like ability to close out a match, serving strings of aces, but he now seems to have a mental block against the iron-willed Nadal. Federer was in floods of tears at the end of the match. Maybe he was thinking: if I can't beat him after he's played a semi-final lasting over five hours, will i ever beat him again. If Roger is to equal & surpass Sampras' record, he will have to hope it's not Nadal on the other side of the net in the final.

The womens final was a nightmare for Dinara Safina. She lost to 0 & 3 to Serena in under an hour. Needless to say, more competition is needed at the top of the womens game. Ivanovic is out of form, but Sharapova is aiming to make her comeback from injury in March.

Boxing

In my last blog i previewed two bouts. Having been scathing about the Froch fight, it turned out to be a superb contest, probably the British fight of the year. It did make you realise how good Calzaghe was- his fitness, accuracy & volume of punches thrown were all superior to what Froch produced. The American Jermain Taylor, who has twice beaten Bernard Hopkins on points, is the mandatory challenger to Froch's WBC title, but the fight may not happen, as Froch is not a box office draw in the US. Calzaghe announced his retirement this week, & Oscar de la Hoya should join him. He had nothing left in the tank in the fight against Manny Pacquiao, & was overwhelmed & beaten up by the smaller man before retiring after the eight round. Calzaghe retires undefeated, a very rare feat in boxing.