Federer Rewrites the Rule Book

Federer re-wrote the manual on shots that are possible on the tennis court. Nadal was on the receiving end yesterday of a half-volleyed winner from the baseline.

The conventional wisdom was that Federer not supposed to be able to win 5-setters against the younger guys, let alone the three he won in Melbourne to pick up the title. 

Improvements in sports science have allowed players to extend their careers, & winning titles in their 30’s may become more common, as Wawrinka did at the US & French Opens. However Federer’s Aussie Open win at 35 is clearly an exceptional feat. 

He was supposed to have of a chance of winning another Slam only at Wimbledon, as he’s still considered one of the best movers on a grass court and has a formidable career win percentage on the green stuff. He had already disproved this theory by reaching the 2015 US Open final.

The conventional wisdom was that you don’t win a tournament, let alone a Slam, after a six month lay-off. Roger had other ideas.

Serena Williams continues to extend her own formidable haul of majors and GOAT status. It was a disappointment she didn’t face tougher competition. Some possible rivals are out of the picture, with Azarenka on maternity leave & Kvitova’s hand injury. Other rivals in Melbourne underperformed- Kerber & Muguruza, or were injured (Halep).

Tennis Season Predictions

Who can capture the major titles in 2017?

On the men’s side, this blogger feels there are 3 categories of players who can be ruled out: GOATs, youngsters & spoilers.

It looks unlikely that Federer & Nadal can add to their major haul. Both GOAT contenders have lost their aura & have suffered with injury lay-offs, six months in the Fed's case.

One of Nadal’s strengths used to be coming through tough 5 setters. Over the last 16 months he’s been on the wrong end of the score, with notable losses to Fognini & Pouille (both US Open) and Verdasco (Aus Open).

Alexander Zverev is perhaps the most promising of the younger generation (Thiem, Krygios, Edmund, Fritz etc.) The German may need a couple more years before he can challenge in the Slams, but should make top 15 in the rankings this year.

Then there are the spoilers, who can do damage to other contenders, but who may fall short of lifting the trophies.

Nishikori must surely improve his serve to have a chance of winning a major

Krygios is up to career high rank of 13 but has yet to go past a major QF and question marks remain over his temperament.

Finally then, the select group of possible Slam winners, who I would rank in this order: Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Del Potro and Raonic.

On the women’s tour, who can challenge Kerber at the top?

Kvitova is now out with hand injury, Azarenka is on maternity leave.

Will age catch up with Serena Williams? To date she has seemed largely immune to the ravages of time, & has that unmatched serve to get her out of trouble.

Radwanska is perhaps the best tactician on the WTA tour but ‘The Professor’ lacks the power game to capture the top honours.

Halep has finished the last three years in the top four of the rankings & the Romanian can again push for no. 1

Muguruza lifted the French crown last year, but then bombed out in round two at both the US Open & SW19. I expect her to be more consistent this season & be the closest challenger to Kerber.