Megafights
Its the big fight tonight. Carl 'The Cobra' Froch v Jean Pascal at the Nottingham Trent Arena ? Er...no. Manny Pacquiao v Oscar de la Hoya in a non-title welterweight bout from the MGM Grand, Las Vegas. The PacMan, moving up from lightweight for this contest, is rated by all the experts as the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world; de la Hoya remains the biggest box office draw in boxing. The Golden Boy will have a considerable height & reach advantage & is naturally the bigger man. However he also had a big reach advantage over Floyd Mayweather last year, but lost on points. De la Hoya is spotting 6 years to his opponent (35 v 29) & I think Manny can win a close 12-round decision.
The winner is likely to meet Ricky Hatton next year in a megabucks fight in England, with the City Of Manchester Stadium or Wembley the likely venues. Carl Froch would love to join that earning league. His opponent tonight is unbeaten, though not rated in the top ten by Ring magazine. If Froch wins, he will undoubtedly repeat his demands for a fight with Joe Calzaghe. However, Calzaghe has nothing to gain from fighting Froch.
Premier League
Which Arsenal will turn up today ? The team that beat Man U & Chelsea, or the version that has lost to the likes of Stoke & Fulham ? The title race still seems to be open, despite the Gunners being 16-1 shots with the bookies, but they might need a run to match the unbeaten campaign of five seasons ago.
The timing of Roy Keane's resignation seems a bit strange. Why not wait until after today's game? Sunderland would not be expected to get anything from Old Trafford, & if they did pull off a result, it could be the catalyst for them to go on a run.
Saturday 6 December 2008
Sunday 2 November 2008
Hopkins the Master
Bernard Hopkins pulled off a big upset on October 18, beating Kelly Pavlik. Betting odds of 4-1 had been offered on a Hopkins win. Hopkins record reign of 20 defences of the middleweight title had been ended by two points losses to Jermain Taylor. Taylor was subsequently KOd by Pavlik. Both Pavlik & Hopkins were ranked in the top ten 'pound-for- pound' rankings prior to the bout. Hopkins is 43, Pavlik 26, but it was the older man who was quickest to the punch & 'The Executioner' busted up & widely outpointed his previously undefeated opponent. Before the fight Hopkins had been certain of a place in the Hall of Fame, now he has cemented his reputation as one of the all-time greats.
Murray's great run
When drafting this post, there were two unbeaten streaks to discuss. Andy Murray has been in the best form of his career. His 14 match win streak was ended by David Nalbandian in the quarters of the Paris Masters on Friday. However his recent tournament record is outstanding: winning two Masters titles, runner-up at US Open, & defended his St Petersburg title. Both Henman & Rusedski won the Masters once in their entire careers. On this form Murray can become the first British Slam winner since Perry in 1936.
LFC title challenge
Having jinxed Murray, the commentator's curse struck again when Liverpool lost their unbeaten record at Spurs yesterday. However, they still have perhaps their best chance in recent years to win their first title since 1990. In recent seasons they have had a poor record v the other Big Four teams, but this season have already beaten both Man U & Chelsea. Those three look like the title contenders.
Arsenal continue to be unable to defend against set pieces & Rory Delap's long throws were their undoing yesterday. Martin Keown will discuss a coaching role with Tony Adams at Portsmouth next week, but perhaps Dixon & Winterburn could be lured out of the studio to offer some defensive tips.
Bernard Hopkins pulled off a big upset on October 18, beating Kelly Pavlik. Betting odds of 4-1 had been offered on a Hopkins win. Hopkins record reign of 20 defences of the middleweight title had been ended by two points losses to Jermain Taylor. Taylor was subsequently KOd by Pavlik. Both Pavlik & Hopkins were ranked in the top ten 'pound-for- pound' rankings prior to the bout. Hopkins is 43, Pavlik 26, but it was the older man who was quickest to the punch & 'The Executioner' busted up & widely outpointed his previously undefeated opponent. Before the fight Hopkins had been certain of a place in the Hall of Fame, now he has cemented his reputation as one of the all-time greats.
Murray's great run
When drafting this post, there were two unbeaten streaks to discuss. Andy Murray has been in the best form of his career. His 14 match win streak was ended by David Nalbandian in the quarters of the Paris Masters on Friday. However his recent tournament record is outstanding: winning two Masters titles, runner-up at US Open, & defended his St Petersburg title. Both Henman & Rusedski won the Masters once in their entire careers. On this form Murray can become the first British Slam winner since Perry in 1936.
LFC title challenge
Having jinxed Murray, the commentator's curse struck again when Liverpool lost their unbeaten record at Spurs yesterday. However, they still have perhaps their best chance in recent years to win their first title since 1990. In recent seasons they have had a poor record v the other Big Four teams, but this season have already beaten both Man U & Chelsea. Those three look like the title contenders.
Arsenal continue to be unable to defend against set pieces & Rory Delap's long throws were their undoing yesterday. Martin Keown will discuss a coaching role with Tony Adams at Portsmouth next week, but perhaps Dixon & Winterburn could be lured out of the studio to offer some defensive tips.
Saturday 13 September 2008
Form is Temporary
Roger Federer: An Apology
In my post of 12 July I had dared to suggest that Roger would never win another Grand Slam. In the US Open final Monday against Murray, he was back to his imperious best. On this form, he could match Sampras all-time record of 14 Slams as early as January in Melbourne. The runner-up was the first Brit in a Slam final since the Gregster in 1997(L to Rafter, also at the US).This has been Murray’s breakthrough year. He had never gone beyond a Slam fourth round before this year, but then reached the quarters of Wimbledon. He then beat Djokovic twice, including winning TMS Cincinnati, and beat Nadal for the first time to reach the final at Flushing Meadows, taking him up to no. 4 in the world rankings. Murray has all the ingredients-talent, guts, focus & fitness- to reach, & win, more Slam finals in the future.
Serena Williams regained the no. 1 ranking by becoming champ again (beating Venus in the quarters). The Williams sisters seem to have been around forever, so the tendency is to become blasé about their achievements, but they have now won 16 Slam singles titles between them (the US was Serena’s 9th). Arguably they are the most successful sporting siblings ever, though you could also make a case for the Charlton brothers or the Waugh twins.
Olympics review
So many highlights to pick from. Apart from the obvious candidates, Phelps & Bolt, my personal faves: Lezak overhauling a body length deficit in the last 50 in the 4x100 free relay. The GB rowing four overhauling the Australians in the last 250 m. Amazing final lap sprints from the Ethiopian men & women in the 5 & 10 k track races. From a British perspective, the ‘sitting-down’ sports exceeded expectations, but the underperformance of the athletics is a worry. The athletes need to raise their level or there will be a lot of finals at 2012 with no home representation. However, the Team GB result to finish fourth in the medals table was a fantastic achievement, behind only the superpowers (China, USA, Russia)
In my post of 12 July I had dared to suggest that Roger would never win another Grand Slam. In the US Open final Monday against Murray, he was back to his imperious best. On this form, he could match Sampras all-time record of 14 Slams as early as January in Melbourne. The runner-up was the first Brit in a Slam final since the Gregster in 1997(L to Rafter, also at the US).This has been Murray’s breakthrough year. He had never gone beyond a Slam fourth round before this year, but then reached the quarters of Wimbledon. He then beat Djokovic twice, including winning TMS Cincinnati, and beat Nadal for the first time to reach the final at Flushing Meadows, taking him up to no. 4 in the world rankings. Murray has all the ingredients-talent, guts, focus & fitness- to reach, & win, more Slam finals in the future.
Serena Williams regained the no. 1 ranking by becoming champ again (beating Venus in the quarters). The Williams sisters seem to have been around forever, so the tendency is to become blasé about their achievements, but they have now won 16 Slam singles titles between them (the US was Serena’s 9th). Arguably they are the most successful sporting siblings ever, though you could also make a case for the Charlton brothers or the Waugh twins.
Olympics review
So many highlights to pick from. Apart from the obvious candidates, Phelps & Bolt, my personal faves: Lezak overhauling a body length deficit in the last 50 in the 4x100 free relay. The GB rowing four overhauling the Australians in the last 250 m. Amazing final lap sprints from the Ethiopian men & women in the 5 & 10 k track races. From a British perspective, the ‘sitting-down’ sports exceeded expectations, but the underperformance of the athletics is a worry. The athletes need to raise their level or there will be a lot of finals at 2012 with no home representation. However, the Team GB result to finish fourth in the medals table was a fantastic achievement, behind only the superpowers (China, USA, Russia)
Friday 8 August 2008
Beijing 2008
I was discussing the Olympics with a friend this morning. He thought two weeks of it was mostly a bore, though he might catch some of the boxing & the football. I tried to convince him otherwise.
How can you not be excited by the Olympics? Michael Phelps will again be trying to match or better Mark Spitz's record haul of seven gold medals in a single games. In the mens 100 metres the current & former world record holders, Usain Bolt & Asana Powell (Jamaica) v Tyson Gay, who ran a wind-assisted 9.68 in the US trials. Nadal, Federer, Djokovic & the Murray brothers in the tennis. If you need the patriotic angle to stir your interest, prospects for a good haul of British gold medals are excellent. British cycling has never been stronger & will hope to match their superb performance from the worlds. Shanaze Reade & Vicky Pendleton will be the favourites in the BMX & sprint respectively. Rebecca Romero, previously a rowing medallist will try to medal on the track. Bradley Wiggins is the favourite for the Individual Pursuit. Mark Cavendish, fresh from winning four stages in Le Tour, will ride the Madison & possibly the IP. The coxless four rowers will try to retain their title. Triple jumper Philips Idowu has the world leading jump this year & won the world indoor title. Sailor Ben Ainslie is the favourite in the Finn class. Last but not least (except in stature) what a story it would be if 14 year-old Tom Daley could win a medal in the diving.
The new Premiership season could be boring if The Big Four monopoly can’t be broken. The only team who appear to have a chance of making the breakthrough this season are Spurs. Although they have sold Keane, & it’s rumoured Berbatov is on his way, they’ve bought Modric & Giovanni & have an outside chance of getting Arshavin.
How can you not be excited by the Olympics? Michael Phelps will again be trying to match or better Mark Spitz's record haul of seven gold medals in a single games. In the mens 100 metres the current & former world record holders, Usain Bolt & Asana Powell (Jamaica) v Tyson Gay, who ran a wind-assisted 9.68 in the US trials. Nadal, Federer, Djokovic & the Murray brothers in the tennis. If you need the patriotic angle to stir your interest, prospects for a good haul of British gold medals are excellent. British cycling has never been stronger & will hope to match their superb performance from the worlds. Shanaze Reade & Vicky Pendleton will be the favourites in the BMX & sprint respectively. Rebecca Romero, previously a rowing medallist will try to medal on the track. Bradley Wiggins is the favourite for the Individual Pursuit. Mark Cavendish, fresh from winning four stages in Le Tour, will ride the Madison & possibly the IP. The coxless four rowers will try to retain their title. Triple jumper Philips Idowu has the world leading jump this year & won the world indoor title. Sailor Ben Ainslie is the favourite in the Finn class. Last but not least (except in stature) what a story it would be if 14 year-old Tom Daley could win a medal in the diving.
The new Premiership season could be boring if The Big Four monopoly can’t be broken. The only team who appear to have a chance of making the breakthrough this season are Spurs. Although they have sold Keane, & it’s rumoured Berbatov is on his way, they’ve bought Modric & Giovanni & have an outside chance of getting Arshavin.
Saturday 12 July 2008
End of an Era
The Nadal-Federer Wimbledon final was one of the all-time classics, ranking right up there with Borg-McEnroe 1980 (the 18-16 tie break match). The quality of tennis right up to the end was phenomenal. Federer on his favourite surface, threw everything he had at Nadal & still lost. I wonder whether he will win another major title. It seems the younger generation of Nadal, Djokovic, even Murray, will now thwart Federer's attempts to win another Slam. He will still have a great chance at the US Open, where Nadal's previous best is 'only' a QF. Nadal plays with both knees strapped & hard courts put the most strain on the joints. Nadal's coach & uncle, Toni Nadal, has expressed his concern at the possible long-term damage of playing on hard courts.
There are parallels between Borg & Federer. Borg beat Mac in 5 sets in Wimbledon 1980, but lost to him in the 1981 final. Now Federer has lost his title having prevailed over Nadal the year before, again in five sets. Borg never won another major after losing to Mac in the 1981 final & retired the next year. However he never won the US Open, whereas Fed has won it four times. Tennis fans need not worry that Federer will follow Borg by retiring in his prime. He promised after the Wimbledon final that he would return next year, & has even spoken about trying to emulate Agassi & Connors by playing on for another ten years, well into his thirties.
At the start of the the year I tipped Roger to finish the year as world no. 1, that now looks unlikely. Federer would probably have to win at Flushing Meadows & match Nadal's results at the other hard court events.
There are parallels between Borg & Federer. Borg beat Mac in 5 sets in Wimbledon 1980, but lost to him in the 1981 final. Now Federer has lost his title having prevailed over Nadal the year before, again in five sets. Borg never won another major after losing to Mac in the 1981 final & retired the next year. However he never won the US Open, whereas Fed has won it four times. Tennis fans need not worry that Federer will follow Borg by retiring in his prime. He promised after the Wimbledon final that he would return next year, & has even spoken about trying to emulate Agassi & Connors by playing on for another ten years, well into his thirties.
At the start of the the year I tipped Roger to finish the year as world no. 1, that now looks unlikely. Federer would probably have to win at Flushing Meadows & match Nadal's results at the other hard court events.
Monday 23 June 2008
Strawberries & Cream
Wimbledon
The most probable match-up for the womens final, as well as the dream for the tv executives, is Ivanovic v Sharapova. The Williams sisters are formidable on grass though & could halt the glamour final in the semis. Dinara Safina could have another good run to match her form in Paris, but the winner will come from the first four mentioned.
I tipped Fed to win here back in January, & i still think he'll win his sixth straight title. The form of Nadal, & his crushing win over Federer at Roland Garros have made him the favourite for many pundits.However, I still feel that if Roger plays his 'A' game, he has the edge over Rafa, though it wil be very tight. Djokovic is in Federer's half, they are drawn to meet in the semis & the Serb won their match at the same stage in Australia. Nadal could face a tricky second round tie v the Latvian Ernest Gulbis. British hopes again rest with Murray. He's seeded to meet Gasquet in the fourth round, who made the semis last year. Murray has yet to reach a Grand Slam QF & I think Gasquet will prevent that statistic changing.
Euro 2008
My prediction of a Spain-Germany final is still on. Holland looked a good bet for the semis after their impressive displays in the group stages, especially v Italy & France. In the quarter final though they were completely outplayed by Russia, who look a team transformed with Arshavin back from suspension. Germany will have to be wary of the comeback kings, Turkey. I can't understand why Fabregas isn't a starter for Spain, but Aragones has preferred Xavi for the playmaker role. My player of the tournament so far is Ballack. Germany have played some good football, I had expected them to be more in the mould of Sweden, but they scored a great team goal with the first strike against Portugal.
The most probable match-up for the womens final, as well as the dream for the tv executives, is Ivanovic v Sharapova. The Williams sisters are formidable on grass though & could halt the glamour final in the semis. Dinara Safina could have another good run to match her form in Paris, but the winner will come from the first four mentioned.
I tipped Fed to win here back in January, & i still think he'll win his sixth straight title. The form of Nadal, & his crushing win over Federer at Roland Garros have made him the favourite for many pundits.However, I still feel that if Roger plays his 'A' game, he has the edge over Rafa, though it wil be very tight. Djokovic is in Federer's half, they are drawn to meet in the semis & the Serb won their match at the same stage in Australia. Nadal could face a tricky second round tie v the Latvian Ernest Gulbis. British hopes again rest with Murray. He's seeded to meet Gasquet in the fourth round, who made the semis last year. Murray has yet to reach a Grand Slam QF & I think Gasquet will prevent that statistic changing.
Euro 2008
My prediction of a Spain-Germany final is still on. Holland looked a good bet for the semis after their impressive displays in the group stages, especially v Italy & France. In the quarter final though they were completely outplayed by Russia, who look a team transformed with Arshavin back from suspension. Germany will have to be wary of the comeback kings, Turkey. I can't understand why Fabregas isn't a starter for Spain, but Aragones has preferred Xavi for the playmaker role. My player of the tournament so far is Ballack. Germany have played some good football, I had expected them to be more in the mould of Sweden, but they scored a great team goal with the first strike against Portugal.
Saturday 7 June 2008
Feat of Clay
French Open Tennis
Dinara Safina has been the surprise of the tournament, backing up her win in Berlin by reaching the final. Her run has included two great comebacks against Sharapova (from a set & 5-3 down) & Dementieva (set & 5-2 down) saving a match point both times. Ivanovic has been undone by nerves in finals before & Safina can add another Slam to the family trophy cabinet. It looks like only the Williams sisters can prevent Serbo-Russian domination at Wimbledon & the US Open.
Federer looks to have his work cut out against Nadal in Sunday's mens' final. Rafa was awesome in beating Djokovic in straight sets in the semi yesterday. Nadal in 4 sets.
Euro2008
Euro 2008 looks quite an open tournament, the leading contenders seem to be closely matched. I've commented on the lopsided draw in my post of 15/12/07. Italy & France both have ageing squads. Italy don't appear to be as formidable defensively as they once were. Cannavaro will miss the tournament due to injury, & Nesta has retired from the national team (as has Totti). France are also getting long in the tooth through the spine of the team (Makelele, Viera, Henry) but Ribery has been in superb form. Portugal have man of the moment Mr C Ronaldo, but should suffer from lack of quality strikers. Spain are unbeaten in 15 matches & have beaten both France & Italy in that run, albeit in friendlies; & have in Torres arguably the best striker in Europe. Germany are in the easy half of the draw, and should be back to their traditional status as favourites, having performed miserably at both Euro 2000 & 2004. Croatia are my pick as dark horses. A Spain Germany final then, Miroslav Klose to finish top scorer.
Dinara Safina has been the surprise of the tournament, backing up her win in Berlin by reaching the final. Her run has included two great comebacks against Sharapova (from a set & 5-3 down) & Dementieva (set & 5-2 down) saving a match point both times. Ivanovic has been undone by nerves in finals before & Safina can add another Slam to the family trophy cabinet. It looks like only the Williams sisters can prevent Serbo-Russian domination at Wimbledon & the US Open.
Federer looks to have his work cut out against Nadal in Sunday's mens' final. Rafa was awesome in beating Djokovic in straight sets in the semi yesterday. Nadal in 4 sets.
Euro2008
Euro 2008 looks quite an open tournament, the leading contenders seem to be closely matched. I've commented on the lopsided draw in my post of 15/12/07. Italy & France both have ageing squads. Italy don't appear to be as formidable defensively as they once were. Cannavaro will miss the tournament due to injury, & Nesta has retired from the national team (as has Totti). France are also getting long in the tooth through the spine of the team (Makelele, Viera, Henry) but Ribery has been in superb form. Portugal have man of the moment Mr C Ronaldo, but should suffer from lack of quality strikers. Spain are unbeaten in 15 matches & have beaten both France & Italy in that run, albeit in friendlies; & have in Torres arguably the best striker in Europe. Germany are in the easy half of the draw, and should be back to their traditional status as favourites, having performed miserably at both Euro 2000 & 2004. Croatia are my pick as dark horses. A Spain Germany final then, Miroslav Klose to finish top scorer.
Friday 16 May 2008
Going Out at the Top
So much for my skills as a tipster. In my last post, I predicted a Liverpool-Barcelona Champions League final. I also tipped Mark Selby to win the snooker world championship. Selby was knocked out in the first round. I picked the eventual champion, Ronnie O'Sullivan from the bottom half, but mentioned his 'fragile temperament'. No sign of that as the Rocket won all his matches by considerable margins(5, 6, 6, 11 & 10 frames). Moving on...
Henin
Justine Henin shocked the tennis world by announcing her retirement at the age of 25. Henin is the first woman player to retire while still ranked no. 1 in the world, and would surely have been the betting favourite for the French Open (starts May 25). As I've mentioned in previous posts, Henin was arguably the most technically gifted player on the WTA tour, and had the best backhand in the game. Henin won seven Grand Slams in her career. She will now devote her time to her tennis academy & her charitable Foundation. The only comparable tennis retirement is Borg, who also retired at 25, having recently lost his no. 1 spot to McEnroe.
Rafael Nadal has said this week he expects to lose his no. 2 ranking to Djokovic. On current form, it seems a only a question of when, rather than if, the Serbian becomes world no. 1. However, unless it was kidology by Nadal, it was unexpected for him to be pessimistic, but he does have a mass of ranking points to defend over the coming months. Nadal plays Carlos Moya in the Hamburg Masters later today, & the winner will play Djokovic in the semis tomorrow (Saturday).
FAC & UCL
Viewing figures for the cup finals this week will be interesting. Will an FA Cup Final without the Big Four, or any other of the other traditional glamour clubs (Spurs, Everton, Villa etc) pull in the viewers ? It does make a refreshing change that none of the Big Four have made the final this year. You would expect ITV to get a high audience share for the all-English European Cup/Champions League final. Pompey should have just too much class & experience for Cardiff, 2-1 Pompey win. I'm expecting a tense, tight game Wednesday, which Chelsea can nick by one goal.
Henin
Justine Henin shocked the tennis world by announcing her retirement at the age of 25. Henin is the first woman player to retire while still ranked no. 1 in the world, and would surely have been the betting favourite for the French Open (starts May 25). As I've mentioned in previous posts, Henin was arguably the most technically gifted player on the WTA tour, and had the best backhand in the game. Henin won seven Grand Slams in her career. She will now devote her time to her tennis academy & her charitable Foundation. The only comparable tennis retirement is Borg, who also retired at 25, having recently lost his no. 1 spot to McEnroe.
Rafael Nadal has said this week he expects to lose his no. 2 ranking to Djokovic. On current form, it seems a only a question of when, rather than if, the Serbian becomes world no. 1. However, unless it was kidology by Nadal, it was unexpected for him to be pessimistic, but he does have a mass of ranking points to defend over the coming months. Nadal plays Carlos Moya in the Hamburg Masters later today, & the winner will play Djokovic in the semis tomorrow (Saturday).
FAC & UCL
Viewing figures for the cup finals this week will be interesting. Will an FA Cup Final without the Big Four, or any other of the other traditional glamour clubs (Spurs, Everton, Villa etc) pull in the viewers ? It does make a refreshing change that none of the Big Four have made the final this year. You would expect ITV to get a high audience share for the all-English European Cup/Champions League final. Pompey should have just too much class & experience for Cardiff, 2-1 Pompey win. I'm expecting a tense, tight game Wednesday, which Chelsea can nick by one goal.
Saturday 19 April 2008
Predictions
Calzaghe v Hopkins
I expect Calzaghe to beat Hopkins tonight. Hopkins great defensive skills should prevent a knockout, but Calzaghe's superior workrate should ensure a comfortable points victory.
If Hopkins wins, he would love a big money rematch with Roy Jones. Jones beat him on points in 1993 (!) but has looked a spent force in recent fights, lacking the lightning reflexes he displayed at the height of his career. Calzaghe has talked about one more fight if he wins, but I think he should retire after this. He has nothing left to prove after his standout wins against Lacy & Kessler, & could retire undefeated.
World Snooker
I’m tipping Mark Selby to win. ‘The Jester’ has already won two tournaments this year, & is a tough competitor- in the Masters he won three matches in final frame deciders. On the other side of the draw, Ronnie O’Sullivan is as always the favourite with the bookmakers, but I think he could be undone by his fragile temperament.
UCL
It's Groundhog Day in the semis of the Uefa Champions League with Liverpool playing Chelsea for the third time in four years. The force always seem to be with the Reds in Europe, although Chelsea & Avram Grant will be desperate to reach the final for the first time. Liverpool to go through by the odd goal.
Barcelona will have Messi & Deco back in the squad for the Man Utd game. Messi came on as as sub in the derby today(0-0). Man U’s squad & strength in depth look formidable on paper, but I reckon Barca will be inspired by playing what is arguably the best team in the world at the moment. Barca on away goals.
I expect Calzaghe to beat Hopkins tonight. Hopkins great defensive skills should prevent a knockout, but Calzaghe's superior workrate should ensure a comfortable points victory.
If Hopkins wins, he would love a big money rematch with Roy Jones. Jones beat him on points in 1993 (!) but has looked a spent force in recent fights, lacking the lightning reflexes he displayed at the height of his career. Calzaghe has talked about one more fight if he wins, but I think he should retire after this. He has nothing left to prove after his standout wins against Lacy & Kessler, & could retire undefeated.
World Snooker
I’m tipping Mark Selby to win. ‘The Jester’ has already won two tournaments this year, & is a tough competitor- in the Masters he won three matches in final frame deciders. On the other side of the draw, Ronnie O’Sullivan is as always the favourite with the bookmakers, but I think he could be undone by his fragile temperament.
UCL
It's Groundhog Day in the semis of the Uefa Champions League with Liverpool playing Chelsea for the third time in four years. The force always seem to be with the Reds in Europe, although Chelsea & Avram Grant will be desperate to reach the final for the first time. Liverpool to go through by the odd goal.
Barcelona will have Messi & Deco back in the squad for the Man Utd game. Messi came on as as sub in the derby today(0-0). Man U’s squad & strength in depth look formidable on paper, but I reckon Barca will be inspired by playing what is arguably the best team in the world at the moment. Barca on away goals.
Saturday 5 April 2008
No Country For Old Men
Once you get past a certain age, reflexes & stamina begin to diminish. The tipping point is typically considered to be 30. At the top level of sport, any such weakness is usually ruthlessly exposed. Outfield footballers rarely play on in the top divisions past the age of 35(Stanley Matthews excepted). Ryan Giggs, at 34, is one oldie still going strong having played over 30 times to date this season for Man Utd. One-on-one sports like boxing & tennis are interesting cases. Tennis is perhaps the ultimate example of top level sport being a young person's game. It's rare to win a Slam past the age of 30, and success is possible at a young age- Becker was 17 when he first won Wimbledon, Hingis won there & in Australia at 16. Sampras won his last Slam aged 31, as did Connors (both US Open). Some notable exceptions: Navratilova was 33 when she won her last Wimbledon singles title, & even won the mixed at age 46 ! Agassi was no. 1 in the world at the age of 33, when he won his last Slam in Australia.
Boxing is also generally considered a young man's game.Normally though, it takes time for young fighters to build up their stamina gradually, starting with four-round contests & eventually working their way up to 8, 10 or 12 rounds if they reach championship level. In boxing, a good young prospect on the rise will nearly always beat a veteran who has suffered the effects of too many gruelling ring battles. However, fighters with good defensive skills, who can avoid taking too much punishment, can prolong their careers-Winky Wright springs to mind (age 36, a former champ, currently ranked 3rd at middleweight). Two outstanding champions fight each other in two weeks time. Joe Calzaghe is universally recognised as the best super-middle in the world, Bernard Hopkins is considered by most experts to be the best at light-heavy. Calzaghe is 36, Hopkins is 43.
Roger Federer must be on the slide-he lost to Roddick this week. Before the defeat, Federer had a 15-1 win-loss record against the American. Is this age-related, or just a run of bad form ? Federer is only 26 after all. Probably only with the benefit of hindsight at the end of the season will it be possible to make an assessment of whether its a decline or a blip. I favour the latter.
Man United
Man U are looking ominous for both the Prem & the ECL. Ronaldo must be a leading contender with the likes of Messi & Kaka for the European & World player of the year awards. His scoring record as a winger this season is sensational. No Premiership player has ever won the World Player award, if Ronnie gets the nod it would be further evidence of the growing strength of the world's richest league. Unless Roma pull off a miracle at Old Trafford, their likely opponents in the CL semi are Barca, who looked very shaky in the second half against Schalke. Chelsea should be able to overturn their one goal deficit against Fenerbahce at Stamford Bridge, & Liverpool are slight favourites v the Gunners after nicking the away goal at the Emirates. Liverpool were fortunate not to concede a pen for Kuyt's tug on Hleb, but Arsenal should have created more chances from their dominance of possession.
Boxing is also generally considered a young man's game.Normally though, it takes time for young fighters to build up their stamina gradually, starting with four-round contests & eventually working their way up to 8, 10 or 12 rounds if they reach championship level. In boxing, a good young prospect on the rise will nearly always beat a veteran who has suffered the effects of too many gruelling ring battles. However, fighters with good defensive skills, who can avoid taking too much punishment, can prolong their careers-Winky Wright springs to mind (age 36, a former champ, currently ranked 3rd at middleweight). Two outstanding champions fight each other in two weeks time. Joe Calzaghe is universally recognised as the best super-middle in the world, Bernard Hopkins is considered by most experts to be the best at light-heavy. Calzaghe is 36, Hopkins is 43.
Roger Federer must be on the slide-he lost to Roddick this week. Before the defeat, Federer had a 15-1 win-loss record against the American. Is this age-related, or just a run of bad form ? Federer is only 26 after all. Probably only with the benefit of hindsight at the end of the season will it be possible to make an assessment of whether its a decline or a blip. I favour the latter.
Man United
Man U are looking ominous for both the Prem & the ECL. Ronaldo must be a leading contender with the likes of Messi & Kaka for the European & World player of the year awards. His scoring record as a winger this season is sensational. No Premiership player has ever won the World Player award, if Ronnie gets the nod it would be further evidence of the growing strength of the world's richest league. Unless Roma pull off a miracle at Old Trafford, their likely opponents in the CL semi are Barca, who looked very shaky in the second half against Schalke. Chelsea should be able to overturn their one goal deficit against Fenerbahce at Stamford Bridge, & Liverpool are slight favourites v the Gunners after nicking the away goal at the Emirates. Liverpool were fortunate not to concede a pen for Kuyt's tug on Hleb, but Arsenal should have created more chances from their dominance of possession.
Monday 17 March 2008
Cymru Am Byth
Wales win the Grand Slam
Their 29-12 victory gave Wales their second Grand Slam in four years. Wales had too much for France in the last twenty minutes, scoring two tries. England should have tried harder to recruit Shaun Edwards (defence coach) -Wales conceded only two tries in the entire tournament. England's win earlier in the day meant they finished as runners-up on points difference. Prior to that game I had thought dropping Jonny was a mistake. However his replacement, Cipriani, played brilliantly at fly-half, converting all seven goal kicks (3 convs, 4 pens)
Prem title race
Four consecutive draws, & despite losing only once this season, Arsenal have lost top spot. (Under the old system of two points for a win Arsenal would be two points clear). Just like in the 2002-2003 season, Arsenal seem to choking at the run-in, to hand the initiative to Man United. They did play a fantastic game to eliminate Milan from UCL though. Who would have thought the Rossoneri would be outpassed & outplayed in their own stadium ?
Chelsea are still only three points behind, the title race is still far too close to call.
The Hayemaker
As I predicted in my last blog, David Haye knocked out Enzo Maccarinelli last Saturday. Haye will move up to heavyweight, as he's been struggling to make the cruiserweight limit. The heavy
division does not have any exceptional boxers at the moment, but Haye, as a natural cruiser, may struggle against some of the bigger guys.
Their 29-12 victory gave Wales their second Grand Slam in four years. Wales had too much for France in the last twenty minutes, scoring two tries. England should have tried harder to recruit Shaun Edwards (defence coach) -Wales conceded only two tries in the entire tournament. England's win earlier in the day meant they finished as runners-up on points difference. Prior to that game I had thought dropping Jonny was a mistake. However his replacement, Cipriani, played brilliantly at fly-half, converting all seven goal kicks (3 convs, 4 pens)
Prem title race
Four consecutive draws, & despite losing only once this season, Arsenal have lost top spot. (Under the old system of two points for a win Arsenal would be two points clear). Just like in the 2002-2003 season, Arsenal seem to choking at the run-in, to hand the initiative to Man United. They did play a fantastic game to eliminate Milan from UCL though. Who would have thought the Rossoneri would be outpassed & outplayed in their own stadium ?
Chelsea are still only three points behind, the title race is still far too close to call.
The Hayemaker
As I predicted in my last blog, David Haye knocked out Enzo Maccarinelli last Saturday. Haye will move up to heavyweight, as he's been struggling to make the cruiserweight limit. The heavy
division does not have any exceptional boxers at the moment, but Haye, as a natural cruiser, may struggle against some of the bigger guys.
Sunday 2 March 2008
A 39th Step Too Far
Tiger Woods
ESPN.com recently ran an piece titled 'Is Tiger Woods the most dominant athlete ever ?' (link below)
http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/video/videopage?videoId=3263383
Woods won the WGC Match Play in Arizona last week. He has now won seven out of the last eight events entered ( his one blemish to a perfect record was a second place). When you think that one bad hole can cost you a round & a tournament, Woods winning run is astonishing. Clearly Tiger is the best player, but opponents have also admitted to being intimidated by him. Perhaps they over press by trying too hard to beat him, too. Woods focus & determination would seem to be the main reason for his dominance.Ominously, Woods said after his latest victory 'you can always get better'.
Champions League
Liverpool will be favourites to win their last 16 tie v Inter after the 2-0 win at Anfield. The trend for good European results but domestic inconsistency continues. How did a team who lost at home in the FA cup to Barnsley inflict the first defeat in five moths on the Serie A leaders ? Playing against ten men for an hour helps though- and both Materazzi's bookings looked a bit harsh. Arsenal may have missed their chance against Milan. Chelsea & Man U should win their home ties against Olympiakos & Lyon. In fact, I would be surprised if there was no English team in the final. If one of the Premiership sides does reach the final it will be the fourth year in a row-as you might expect from the richest league in the world.
Haye v Maccarinelli
These two massive punchers meet next Saturday. Haye's only loss (20 wins) was by stoppage to Carl Thompson in his 11th pro fight. Macca has also only one loss on his pro record from 29 bouts. Haye has arguably faced tougher opposition, and was impressive in knocking out Jean-Marc Mormeck in seven rounds in November, winning the WBA & WBC belts (traditionally the two most prestigious of the 'alphabet' titles). Haye by 10th round KO.
A 39th step too far
I share the delight of many footy fans that Richard Scudamore's plans for a 39th Premier League fixture abroad now seem to be dead in the water. Apart from it being just a cynical money-spinner which shows complete disregard for the fans, what about the sporting implications ? Imagine needing to win the last game of the season to stay up, & having to play a team going for the title. Hardly fair. The whole point of the league is that all play all home & away, and every team follows the same programme. Tacking on an extra fixture distorts the league competition. Instead of looking at more ways to generate revenue, the Premier League should be spreading more of the wealth from the TV contracts etc to the lower leagues & grassroots.
ESPN.com recently ran an piece titled 'Is Tiger Woods the most dominant athlete ever ?' (link below)
http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/video/videopage?videoId=3263383
Woods won the WGC Match Play in Arizona last week. He has now won seven out of the last eight events entered ( his one blemish to a perfect record was a second place). When you think that one bad hole can cost you a round & a tournament, Woods winning run is astonishing. Clearly Tiger is the best player, but opponents have also admitted to being intimidated by him. Perhaps they over press by trying too hard to beat him, too. Woods focus & determination would seem to be the main reason for his dominance.Ominously, Woods said after his latest victory 'you can always get better'.
Champions League
Liverpool will be favourites to win their last 16 tie v Inter after the 2-0 win at Anfield. The trend for good European results but domestic inconsistency continues. How did a team who lost at home in the FA cup to Barnsley inflict the first defeat in five moths on the Serie A leaders ? Playing against ten men for an hour helps though- and both Materazzi's bookings looked a bit harsh. Arsenal may have missed their chance against Milan. Chelsea & Man U should win their home ties against Olympiakos & Lyon. In fact, I would be surprised if there was no English team in the final. If one of the Premiership sides does reach the final it will be the fourth year in a row-as you might expect from the richest league in the world.
Haye v Maccarinelli
These two massive punchers meet next Saturday. Haye's only loss (20 wins) was by stoppage to Carl Thompson in his 11th pro fight. Macca has also only one loss on his pro record from 29 bouts. Haye has arguably faced tougher opposition, and was impressive in knocking out Jean-Marc Mormeck in seven rounds in November, winning the WBA & WBC belts (traditionally the two most prestigious of the 'alphabet' titles). Haye by 10th round KO.
A 39th step too far
I share the delight of many footy fans that Richard Scudamore's plans for a 39th Premier League fixture abroad now seem to be dead in the water. Apart from it being just a cynical money-spinner which shows complete disregard for the fans, what about the sporting implications ? Imagine needing to win the last game of the season to stay up, & having to play a team going for the title. Hardly fair. The whole point of the league is that all play all home & away, and every team follows the same programme. Tacking on an extra fixture distorts the league competition. Instead of looking at more ways to generate revenue, the Premier League should be spreading more of the wealth from the TV contracts etc to the lower leagues & grassroots.
Saturday 26 January 2008
Fed Express Derailed
Aus Open
What should we read into Djokovic's straight-sets defeat of Federer in the semi ? The great man certainly had an off-day with an uncharacteristically high amount of unforced errors. Does it mean his dominance of the game is over, or is it just a temporary blip ? I think the latter. The younger generation of Djokovic & Nadal may have to wait a while longer . I'm convinced Roger will win Wimbledon again this year, though Nadal will probably thwart him again at Roland Garros. Against Djokovic, though, Fed's Sampras-like ability to produce a couple of aces to get out of trouble, was absent.
The revelation of the tournament has been Jo-Wilfred Tsonga. Ranked 38 coming into the tournament, he plays Djokovic in tomorrow's final, having crushed Nadal in the semi as well as dispatching Andy Murray in the first round. Tsonga was in the zone against Rafa- he hit 49 winners in three sets. I think Djokovic will just be too consistent in the final though, & win it in five sets. It could be a classic if both men can reproduce the form they showed in the semis.
The women's tournament has also seen its share of upsets. In my last post I predicted a Henin-Venus Williams final. My betting slip was torn up after the the quarters: Ivanovic took out Venus Williams, & the biggest shock of the same round was Sharapova beating Henin 4 & 0, ending Justine's 32 match win streak. Sharapova's tournament win is being seen by some pundits as a sign that she will dominate this year, but I still expect Henin to be no. 1 at the end of the season, & to win in Paris for a fifth time.
What should we read into Djokovic's straight-sets defeat of Federer in the semi ? The great man certainly had an off-day with an uncharacteristically high amount of unforced errors. Does it mean his dominance of the game is over, or is it just a temporary blip ? I think the latter. The younger generation of Djokovic & Nadal may have to wait a while longer . I'm convinced Roger will win Wimbledon again this year, though Nadal will probably thwart him again at Roland Garros. Against Djokovic, though, Fed's Sampras-like ability to produce a couple of aces to get out of trouble, was absent.
The revelation of the tournament has been Jo-Wilfred Tsonga. Ranked 38 coming into the tournament, he plays Djokovic in tomorrow's final, having crushed Nadal in the semi as well as dispatching Andy Murray in the first round. Tsonga was in the zone against Rafa- he hit 49 winners in three sets. I think Djokovic will just be too consistent in the final though, & win it in five sets. It could be a classic if both men can reproduce the form they showed in the semis.
The women's tournament has also seen its share of upsets. In my last post I predicted a Henin-Venus Williams final. My betting slip was torn up after the the quarters: Ivanovic took out Venus Williams, & the biggest shock of the same round was Sharapova beating Henin 4 & 0, ending Justine's 32 match win streak. Sharapova's tournament win is being seen by some pundits as a sign that she will dominate this year, but I still expect Henin to be no. 1 at the end of the season, & to win in Paris for a fifth time.
Sunday 13 January 2008
Up for the Cup
FA CUP
Dig out all the old cliches about the romance of the FA Cup. The Third Round saw its share of shocks. The biggest was third division (League One as its now ridiculously called) Oldham beating Everton away. Championship sides Huddersfield & Coventry also dispatched top-flight opposition. Havant & Waterlooville earned a replay against Swansea, to keep non-league representation in the competition. Incidentally, Sutton United were the last non-league side to beat top-flight opposition- Coventry in 1989 (3rd round). Coventry had been finalists the year before. The most replayed cup shock on TV is probably Motty's favourite, Hereford (Ronnie Radford et al. v Newcastle,1972).
Aus Open Tennis
Justine Henin is the hot favourite amongst the women, & is on a 28 match win streak. I think she will make the final, although Serena Williams should give her a tough match. Venus Williams is in the easier lower half of the draw, from which I would pick only Ivanovic & Kuznetsova as having realistic chances of beating Venus. So my tip is a Venus-Henin final.
In the men's, Andy Murray is in hot form after winning the title in Doha. He faces the big-hitting Frenchman, Tsonga, in the first round. Richard Gasquet is also in Murray's section though, against whom AM has a 0-2 record. I'll pick Federer to win, although some of the chasing pack (Djokovic, Nalbandian) showed last year it's not just Nadal who can beat the Swiss- Federer has lost some of his dominance. Other potential winners then, are Djokovic, Nalbandian & Gonzalez from the top half; Nadal, Gasquet, Murray, & Roddick from the lower half.
Dig out all the old cliches about the romance of the FA Cup. The Third Round saw its share of shocks. The biggest was third division (League One as its now ridiculously called) Oldham beating Everton away. Championship sides Huddersfield & Coventry also dispatched top-flight opposition. Havant & Waterlooville earned a replay against Swansea, to keep non-league representation in the competition. Incidentally, Sutton United were the last non-league side to beat top-flight opposition- Coventry in 1989 (3rd round). Coventry had been finalists the year before. The most replayed cup shock on TV is probably Motty's favourite, Hereford (Ronnie Radford et al. v Newcastle,1972).
Aus Open Tennis
Justine Henin is the hot favourite amongst the women, & is on a 28 match win streak. I think she will make the final, although Serena Williams should give her a tough match. Venus Williams is in the easier lower half of the draw, from which I would pick only Ivanovic & Kuznetsova as having realistic chances of beating Venus. So my tip is a Venus-Henin final.
In the men's, Andy Murray is in hot form after winning the title in Doha. He faces the big-hitting Frenchman, Tsonga, in the first round. Richard Gasquet is also in Murray's section though, against whom AM has a 0-2 record. I'll pick Federer to win, although some of the chasing pack (Djokovic, Nalbandian) showed last year it's not just Nadal who can beat the Swiss- Federer has lost some of his dominance. Other potential winners then, are Djokovic, Nalbandian & Gonzalez from the top half; Nadal, Gasquet, Murray, & Roddick from the lower half.
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