Federer Rewrites the Rule Book

Federer re-wrote the manual on shots that are possible on the tennis court. Nadal was on the receiving end yesterday of a half-volleyed winner from the baseline.

The conventional wisdom was that Federer not supposed to be able to win 5-setters against the younger guys, let alone the three he won in Melbourne to pick up the title. 

Improvements in sports science have allowed players to extend their careers, & winning titles in their 30’s may become more common, as Wawrinka did at the US & French Opens. However Federer’s Aussie Open win at 35 is clearly an exceptional feat. 

He was supposed to have of a chance of winning another Slam only at Wimbledon, as he’s still considered one of the best movers on a grass court and has a formidable career win percentage on the green stuff. He had already disproved this theory by reaching the 2015 US Open final.

The conventional wisdom was that you don’t win a tournament, let alone a Slam, after a six month lay-off. Roger had other ideas.

Serena Williams continues to extend her own formidable haul of majors and GOAT status. It was a disappointment she didn’t face tougher competition. Some possible rivals are out of the picture, with Azarenka on maternity leave & Kvitova’s hand injury. Other rivals in Melbourne underperformed- Kerber & Muguruza, or were injured (Halep).

Tennis Season Predictions

Who can capture the major titles in 2017?

On the men’s side, this blogger feels there are 3 categories of players who can be ruled out: GOATs, youngsters & spoilers.

It looks unlikely that Federer & Nadal can add to their major haul. Both GOAT contenders have lost their aura & have suffered with injury lay-offs, six months in the Fed's case.

One of Nadal’s strengths used to be coming through tough 5 setters. Over the last 16 months he’s been on the wrong end of the score, with notable losses to Fognini & Pouille (both US Open) and Verdasco (Aus Open).

Alexander Zverev is perhaps the most promising of the younger generation (Thiem, Krygios, Edmund, Fritz etc.) The German may need a couple more years before he can challenge in the Slams, but should make top 15 in the rankings this year.

Then there are the spoilers, who can do damage to other contenders, but who may fall short of lifting the trophies.

Nishikori must surely improve his serve to have a chance of winning a major

Krygios is up to career high rank of 13 but has yet to go past a major QF and question marks remain over his temperament.

Finally then, the select group of possible Slam winners, who I would rank in this order: Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Del Potro and Raonic.

On the women’s tour, who can challenge Kerber at the top?

Kvitova is now out with hand injury, Azarenka is on maternity leave.

Will age catch up with Serena Williams? To date she has seemed largely immune to the ravages of time, & has that unmatched serve to get her out of trouble.

Radwanska is perhaps the best tactician on the WTA tour but ‘The Professor’ lacks the power game to capture the top honours.

Halep has finished the last three years in the top four of the rankings & the Romanian can again push for no. 1

Muguruza lifted the French crown last year, but then bombed out in round two at both the US Open & SW19. I expect her to be more consistent this season & be the closest challenger to Kerber.

Tennis Title Picks

My predictions for Roland Garros:

Dominic Thiem has one of the best clay records over the past year, but has yet to prove his pedigree at the very highest level. He's won a 500 & four 250 level tournaments, but has made just one Masters quarter-final. Nadal looks to have a very tough draw. He is in Djokovic's half & could face Fognini & Thiem in the 3rd & 4th rounds.

Murray's improvement on the red dirt is such that he has the best win percentage on clay  for the past 52 weeks. The Scot may have to get past reigning champ Wawrinka in the semis, & after that the Serb may be an obstacle too far in the final.

Who can stop Serena as she takes another crack at equalling Graf's record of 22 Slams ? Vika Azarenka was tipped by Henman. Her record on hard courts is stellar, but her clay court resume is far less impressive, & she is in Serena's half.

From the lower half, Halep & Garbine Muguruza would be my picks for the semi-finals. I have a feeling Muguruza can frustrate Williams and claim her maiden Slam.

It Was a Very Good Year

Year in Review

2012 was a brilliant year for British sport with Wiggo winning Le Tour, Team GB’s sensational performance in the Olympics & Chelsea upsetting the odds to win the Champions League.

Bolt & Phelps underlined their legendary status with standout performances in the summer. Rudisha’s 800 metre win was even better.

In football, Spain showed they’re still a class above the rest, winning Euro 2012 with style. Aguero’s injury time winner for Man City capped the most exciting finish to a top flight title race since 1989. Leo Messi broke Gerd Muller’s record for goals in a calendar year, with an astonishing 91, helping Barcelona to a nine point lead in La Liga.

Europe pulled off one of the great comebacks in the Ryder Cup.

It was another vintage year in tennis.  The marathon Aussie Open final, record-breaking  wins for Nadal at the French & Federer at Wimbledon. Murray breaking his grand slam duck & the winning the Olympic title. Serena, when fit & focused, proved to be a class apart from the rest, but it seems Azarenka may be getting closer.

Alistair Cook scored 562 runs & broke the English record for most Test centuries, captaining the side to a rare Test series win in India. He will surely break many more batting records.

Uefa Champions League round of 16

A tough draw for the Britsih clubs. Both Man U & Celtic are favoured to go out by the bookies. (Arsenal’s chances are rated 50-50) Madrid v United should be closer than the odds suggest, but I think all the British sides will go out.

Performance of the Month

England’s great upset win over the All Blacks, ending their 20 match unbeaten streak.

Honourable mention: Juan Manuel Marquez getting his revenge for being on the wrong side of some questionable points decisions with a brutal one-punch knockout of Manny Pacquiao.

Operation Grand Slam

My pre-tournament tip, Wales, deservedly took their third Six Nations Grand Slam in eight years.With only three players over the age of 30, they could dominate for some years.
England, who I thought would end up in the bottom half, finished up as runners-up; & in Owen Farrell may have found a dead-eyed kicker in the Wilkinson mould.
France will look to rebound next year from a disappointing 4th place.

Federer back in Form

Roger Federer showed he is still a force to be reckoned with, winning Rotterdam, Dubai, and Indian Wells. Until he lost in Miami it looked like he was on track to regain the world no. 1 ranking, amazingly, at the age of 30. It's still possible, as Djokovic has a huge amount of ranking points to defend this season, but the Fed would need to win a couple of tournaments in the upcoming clay court swing. Also, I still think in the best of five sets matches at the Slams, he will come unstuck against a top eight opponent.

Performance of the Month (Feb & March)

Wales.
Honourable mentions:
Federer.
The GB women 4 x 400 m relay squad, who won the 1st ever GB gold in the event, at the World Indoors.
Brad Wiggins, who became the first Brit since Tom Simpson to win the Paris-Nice stage race.
Vika Azarenka, who lost her 27 match win streak to Bartoli in Miami this week.

Quote of the Month
　
There is no script in sports, you know. I think that's what makes it the best entertainment in the world.
Andy Roddick, after beating Federer for only the third time in 24 meetings.

Marathon Man

January review

Novak Djokovic, after a semi v Murray lasting nearly five hours , had the iron will to overcome fatigue and take the Australian Open title in the longest Slam final in history (5 hr 53 min). That it was against Nadal, by common consent the fittest player on the Tour, made it even more of a feat . Rafa had also had the luxury of an extra day's rest & a shorter four set semi v Federer.
Djokovic's mental strength was typified for me by the ninth game of the final set. He lost an exhausting 31-shot rally, but went on to win the game.
Some experts have been quick to put the match up there with the all-time great finals, like Wimbledon 2008 (Federer-Nadal) & 1980 (Borg-McEnroe). it was definitely a great match, but the lack of net play is a slight negative. Time will tell whether it deserves to be ranked that highly.

Murray can take heart from coming back from 2-5 down in the fifth set of the semi before eventually succumbing to defeat (7-5). He pushed Djokovic much closer than the straight sets reverse of last year's final.

The womens final was a let down by comparison, turning out to be disappointingly one-sided, as Sharapova won only three games. Azarenka won her first major, & in stark contrast to the men, where the top three players have monopolised the Slams, the last four majors have had first time winners (Stosur, Li Na, Kvitova, Azarenka). I think the latter two will vie for the no.1 ranking over the next few years.

Performance of the Month

There can only be one-Djokovic.

Six Nations Rugby

Before an oval ball was kicked I tipped Wales. They have pace, power & youth in the backs. The Welsh can win the key fixture, home to France, & do the Grand Slam.