Tennis Season Predictions

Who can capture the major titles in 2017?

On the men’s side, this blogger feels there are 3 categories of players who can be ruled out: GOATs, youngsters & spoilers.

It looks unlikely that Federer & Nadal can add to their major haul. Both GOAT contenders have lost their aura & have suffered with injury lay-offs, six months in the Fed's case.

One of Nadal’s strengths used to be coming through tough 5 setters. Over the last 16 months he’s been on the wrong end of the score, with notable losses to Fognini & Pouille (both US Open) and Verdasco (Aus Open).

Alexander Zverev is perhaps the most promising of the younger generation (Thiem, Krygios, Edmund, Fritz etc.) The German may need a couple more years before he can challenge in the Slams, but should make top 15 in the rankings this year.

Then there are the spoilers, who can do damage to other contenders, but who may fall short of lifting the trophies.

Nishikori must surely improve his serve to have a chance of winning a major

Krygios is up to career high rank of 13 but has yet to go past a major QF and question marks remain over his temperament.

Finally then, the select group of possible Slam winners, who I would rank in this order: Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Del Potro and Raonic.

On the women’s tour, who can challenge Kerber at the top?

Kvitova is now out with hand injury, Azarenka is on maternity leave.

Will age catch up with Serena Williams? To date she has seemed largely immune to the ravages of time, & has that unmatched serve to get her out of trouble.

Radwanska is perhaps the best tactician on the WTA tour but ‘The Professor’ lacks the power game to capture the top honours.

Halep has finished the last three years in the top four of the rankings & the Romanian can again push for no. 1

Muguruza lifted the French crown last year, but then bombed out in round two at both the US Open & SW19. I expect her to be more consistent this season & be the closest challenger to Kerber.

The German Mentality

Germany arguably do not have more talented players than England, but they consistently outperform us in the big tournaments. If only England had their mentality. Players like Klose are of the same generation as Lampard & Gerrard, but they have delivered when it matters. Everyone knows Germany’s World Cup record is awesome, but their recent tournament record is exceptional. Apart from Euro 2004, where they didnt get out of the group stage, they over-achieved to reach the 2002 final; then semis in 2006 (though with home advantage) ,runners-up at Euro 2008 & now semis again. Their 4-0 win over Argentina makes the English defeat look slightly better. Once again they were able to soak up pressure & were devastating on the counter.

I expected Brazil to beat Spain in the final, but they self-destructed against Holland. Still no African team has reached a WC semi-final.
No-one could have predicted both France, & the holders Italy, going out at the group stage, & both finishing bottom of their groups.

Wimbledon

In November I was at the O2 for the Masters & saw Djokovic comfortably take care of Nadal. In fact Rafa lost all his matches in straight sets. So it’s quite incredible how he has regained the no. 1 spot & again done the French-Wimbledon double. At the moment, it;’s difficult to see anyone challenging him (maybe Del Potro, if he can regain his previous level after wrist surgery)
, & assuming his knees hold up, he can set his sights on Federer’s record no. of Slams, he’s already half-way there with 8 majors.
Many commentators are wondering whether its time to start writing Federer's obituary. His incredible streak of 23 consecutive Slam semis having been broken, he's now made two Slam QF exits in a row. I'm not writing him off though, & am expecting to bounce back at the US hardcourt season & the US Open.

Andy Murray came up short in the semi v Rafa. Nadal played the big points better- taking the only break point in the 1st set, but he also benefited from a net cord in the 2nd set tiebreak. Murray is very close to winning a Slam but i do wonder if his groundstrokes are big enough.-he can’t blast opponents off the court like Soderling or Berdych. The latter is someone whose low ranking i always found a puzzle, considering he has wins over Roger & Rafa. But this year he's finally broken into the top ten, reaching the French semis & the final here at SW19.

Laura Robson, ranked 234 prior to Wimbledon, again put up a good fight against a much higher ranked opponent (no. 4 Jankovic) but lost in straight sets. I was surprised to read an article in the Guardian that Wozniacki is the only teenager currently in the top 25. The WTA top 20 average is 26, 5 years older than it was in 1990. Many prodigies in the womens game have won slams/cracked the top ten at an early age-Capriati, Seles, Graf, Hingis, Sabatini, Sanchez-Vicario, the Williamses etc. But lately with the Williams sisters, the Belgians coming out of retirement, the top players are extending their careers into their late twenties & beyond. With her talent I think Robson can make top 50 at the least, & with the higher average age of the top players, has time on her side.

Return of the Ronster

This is my first post in ages-long hiatus due to buying & moving into a flat…

After years of total domination by the Big Four, this year's Premiership has been a welcome change with the increased competition. Man City, Villa & Spurs are threatening the established pecking order. Vila have beaten Liverpool, Man U & Chelsea this season. The so-called lesser sides have also taken points off the Big Four- Wigan, Burnley. The result is that with 20 games played Man U have already lost 5 games. But they have suffered badly with injuries to their defence. Chelsea could lose points with Essien, Drogba & Mikel away at the African Cup., Meanwhile Arsenal have capitalised on recent slip-ups by Chels & MU , with 5 wins & a draw since the 3-0 home loss to Chelsea, but then were held to a draw by Everton. Liverpool have a lot of work to do just to get into the last Champions League spot. I’m still sticking by my pre-season prediction that the title will be between Chelsea & MU, with the Blues edging it.

The FA Cup Third round saw no upsets on the Saturday. Then United lost to Leeds on the Sunday, & Liverpool lost their replay to Reading. It’s the first time in 50 years both teams have gone out in R3.

Australian Open

Andy Murray, seeded 5, has a tough draw- Nadal in the quarters & then potentially Del Potro in the semi. Will Federer reach an incedible 23rd consecutive (!!) Slam semi. He’s seeded to meet Davydenko in the quarters, who recently broke his duck against Roger & has now beaten him twice on the trot; after that Djokovic is seeded for the semi.

Clijsters & Henin contested the Brisbane final, Clijsters winning the 3rd set breaker. I think these two will be a familiar sight in the next few years playing each other in the semis & finals of the Slams. Henin has a tricky draw, & will probably face Dementieva in the 2nd round. The Russian is probably the fittest player on the womens tour, & Henin could suffer with the heat, given that Melbourne had a record high night temperature this week.

Tips for the titles: Clijsters & Del Potro.