French Open predictions

The top men’s seeds, Murray & Djokovic, have not been in top form this season. Neither has Wawrinka-until this week, with the Swiss is in today’s Geneva final. However Stan is a big game player, & in his last two majors made semis at Aus & was the champion in US. So I fancy Stan the Man from the top half of the draw. In the bottom half, I can see Thiem getting past the Djoker in the quarters before falling to the eventual winner & current captain of my fantasy league team, Mallorca’s finest, Mr Rafa Nadal.

The women’s draw has been described as wide open by many, including your humble blogger. World no. 1 Kerber has been off the boil this season, Serena is off on maternity leave. Simona Halep won in Madrid, but may not have recovered from rolling her ankle in last week’s Rome final. The Russian veteran Kuznetsova has had her best results in the majors here, & can make another good run this year. No. 4 seed Garbi Muguruza is another lover of the red dirt, & despite her patchy form, she’s my pick to retain her title.   

Federer Rewrites the Rule Book

Federer re-wrote the manual on shots that are possible on the tennis court. Nadal was on the receiving end yesterday of a half-volleyed winner from the baseline.

The conventional wisdom was that Federer not supposed to be able to win 5-setters against the younger guys, let alone the three he won in Melbourne to pick up the title. 

Improvements in sports science have allowed players to extend their careers, & winning titles in their 30’s may become more common, as Wawrinka did at the US & French Opens. However Federer’s Aussie Open win at 35 is clearly an exceptional feat. 

He was supposed to have of a chance of winning another Slam only at Wimbledon, as he’s still considered one of the best movers on a grass court and has a formidable career win percentage on the green stuff. He had already disproved this theory by reaching the 2015 US Open final.

The conventional wisdom was that you don’t win a tournament, let alone a Slam, after a six month lay-off. Roger had other ideas.

Serena Williams continues to extend her own formidable haul of majors and GOAT status. It was a disappointment she didn’t face tougher competition. Some possible rivals are out of the picture, with Azarenka on maternity leave & Kvitova’s hand injury. Other rivals in Melbourne underperformed- Kerber & Muguruza, or were injured (Halep).

Tennis Season Predictions

Who can capture the major titles in 2017?

On the men’s side, this blogger feels there are 3 categories of players who can be ruled out: GOATs, youngsters & spoilers.

It looks unlikely that Federer & Nadal can add to their major haul. Both GOAT contenders have lost their aura & have suffered with injury lay-offs, six months in the Fed's case.

One of Nadal’s strengths used to be coming through tough 5 setters. Over the last 16 months he’s been on the wrong end of the score, with notable losses to Fognini & Pouille (both US Open) and Verdasco (Aus Open).

Alexander Zverev is perhaps the most promising of the younger generation (Thiem, Krygios, Edmund, Fritz etc.) The German may need a couple more years before he can challenge in the Slams, but should make top 15 in the rankings this year.

Then there are the spoilers, who can do damage to other contenders, but who may fall short of lifting the trophies.

Nishikori must surely improve his serve to have a chance of winning a major

Krygios is up to career high rank of 13 but has yet to go past a major QF and question marks remain over his temperament.

Finally then, the select group of possible Slam winners, who I would rank in this order: Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Del Potro and Raonic.

On the women’s tour, who can challenge Kerber at the top?

Kvitova is now out with hand injury, Azarenka is on maternity leave.

Will age catch up with Serena Williams? To date she has seemed largely immune to the ravages of time, & has that unmatched serve to get her out of trouble.

Radwanska is perhaps the best tactician on the WTA tour but ‘The Professor’ lacks the power game to capture the top honours.

Halep has finished the last three years in the top four of the rankings & the Romanian can again push for no. 1

Muguruza lifted the French crown last year, but then bombed out in round two at both the US Open & SW19. I expect her to be more consistent this season & be the closest challenger to Kerber.

An Open Letter to Chris Kermode

Dear Chris

I caught some of your interview with Jon Inverdale on ITV4 yesterday re: considering how to keep tennis popular in the future.

You suggested in an age of shorter attention spans, no-one wants to sit all the way through a six-hour tennis match. Even a hardcore fan like me would find it hard to disagree.

However, part of the beauty of tennis is the scoring system that gives you ten minute games with multiple deuces & epic long matches. People can always dip in & out of the live TV coverage for the most exciting bits eg ends of sets; or even catch the five minute highlights on YouTube. The unique scoring system is part of the appeal that sets it apart from other sports.

By all means experiment with different formats like TieBreak Tens or Superset to showcase the #NextGen, but please keep the Grand Slams as they are. Just like Test cricket co-exists with the Twenty20 IPL.

Regards,

Sam Wheeler

Tennis Title Picks

My predictions for Roland Garros:

Dominic Thiem has one of the best clay records over the past year, but has yet to prove his pedigree at the very highest level. He's won a 500 & four 250 level tournaments, but has made just one Masters quarter-final. Nadal looks to have a very tough draw. He is in Djokovic's half & could face Fognini & Thiem in the 3rd & 4th rounds.

Murray's improvement on the red dirt is such that he has the best win percentage on clay  for the past 52 weeks. The Scot may have to get past reigning champ Wawrinka in the semis, & after that the Serb may be an obstacle too far in the final.

Who can stop Serena as she takes another crack at equalling Graf's record of 22 Slams ? Vika Azarenka was tipped by Henman. Her record on hard courts is stellar, but her clay court resume is far less impressive, & she is in Serena's half.

From the lower half, Halep & Garbine Muguruza would be my picks for the semi-finals. I have a feeling Muguruza can frustrate Williams and claim her maiden Slam.

Leicester Take the Laurels

What else is there to say about Leicester City and their phenomenal achievement? It’s indisputably one of the great underdog triumphs of all time. All the doubters- & this blogger- were expecting them to fall away but they just kept winning. Ranieri is by all accounts one of the nicest men in football, so it’s well deserved that the Roman finally got his league title laurels.

Next season the title race should be fiercely contested with Guardiola looking to work his magic on City, Klopp’s resurgent Liverpool, & Spurs have a taste for the top. The Foxes may struggle to finish in the top half. They will be a prized scalp, with the added demands of Champions League football, and will also have to deal with the changed mindset of being the hunted. Kante is a key player for their hyperactive style & may well be poached by one of the big boys.

The Cambridge crew in the Women's Boat Race gave their all in a losing cause but showed great determination & courage to finish the race. Many would have taken the easy option to abandon when they were taking on water in the choppy conditions.

“In the dust of defeat as well as the laurels of victory there is a glory to be found if one has done his best.”
― Eric Liddell

Djoker Holds All the Aces

Novak Djokovic is so dominant it’s getting boring. The unpredictability of sport is a big part of the appeal, but Djokovic is rarely on the losing side nowadays. The Serb’s haul for 2015 includes three Majors, six Masters, & the year-end championship, as he set a new record for total ranking points in a year. Arguably it was the best season in the men’s game for many years, surpassing even the peak years of the Swiss maestro.

There will be many, including this blogger, who will hope the Serb has peaked, so that others can share the spoils of victory. Next year, there’s also Olympic gold on offer, and Novak would love to upgrade his bronze from Beijing 2008. 

Before 2011, the World Cup record of the All Blacks did not match up with their winning record elsewhere. The label of them as chokers on the biggest stage has now been emphatically buried.

Sporting greats are set apart by their composure & execution under pressure. Dan Carter’s drop goal in the final was the best example I’ve seen this year. The Aussies had pulled back to within four points, 10 minutes left to play, the fly-half struck it beautifully, right through the middle of the sticks.