Wimbledon Predictions

Firstly my thoughts on the male contenders.

Andy Murray might have been my tip for the men’s title, but had a shocker at Queens and how is his hip ? Nick Krygios has the same ailment.

Raonic has the power, but does he have the subtlety? He also has an exceptionally tough draw, if he makes quarters he’s seeded to face three of the Big Four.

Grass is by some distance Wawrinka’s worst surface, & he faces a tough opener with the rising Russian, Daniil Medvedev.

Alexander Zverev has won three titles this season but lost in the 1^st round Roland Garros, and was smashed in the Halle final by Federer. They could meet again in the quarters if the German can get past Raonic.

Nadal looks to have a good draw, but has often suffered with his knees on the grass.

Djokovic has not been his best lately, until winning Eastbourne yesterday. The Serb has a tough draw however with Del Potro & Lopez in his section.

Which brings us to Federer. He faces a potentially tough opener with the mercurial Dolgopolov.  Raonic & the talented Dimitrov are also in the same section as the Swiss maestro. His 24-2 record for the season & his grass pedigree makes him the favourite.  

Moving on to the women, let’s start with the Eastbourne finalists.

Karolina Pliskova has the power game to profit on the grass & she has the silverware from the seaside to prove it.

Wozniacki by contrast is a retriever, who after 2 lean years is back in the top ten. They’re seeded to meet in the quarters.

Another counter-attacker, Halep, has been the form player on clay by some distance, but I can’t see her defensive game winning here.  

Muguruza has been in patchy form, won only one game at Eastbourne.

Jo Konta appears to suffer at SW19 with the pressure of home expectation, & can she can recover from her back injury in time?

Kerber is still clinging onto the no.1 ranking, but like Murray seems to be struggling with the burden of defending the no.1 position form the chasing pack. Her form is unimpressive-currently only at 15^th in the YTD rankings.

Petra Kvitova won in Birmingham despite a long lay-off, but she herself has doubted if she has the stamina for a two week tournament.

Ostapenko is similar to Kvitova in game style but takes even more risks in going for the lines. She went all in & took the title at Roland Garros, but I can’t see her taking the jackpot in SW19

Aga Radwanska has had her best results here, but has a tough opener v Jankovic. Possibly Bacsinsky will win that section.

The big-serving Pliskova is my tip to take her maiden Slam title.

French Open predictions

The top men’s seeds, Murray & Djokovic, have not been in top form this season. Neither has Wawrinka-until this week, with the Swiss is in today’s Geneva final. However Stan is a big game player, & in his last two majors made semis at Aus & was the champion in US. So I fancy Stan the Man from the top half of the draw. In the bottom half, I can see Thiem getting past the Djoker in the quarters before falling to the eventual winner & current captain of my fantasy league team, Mallorca’s finest, Mr Rafa Nadal.

The women’s draw has been described as wide open by many, including your humble blogger. World no. 1 Kerber has been off the boil this season, Serena is off on maternity leave. Simona Halep won in Madrid, but may not have recovered from rolling her ankle in last week’s Rome final. The Russian veteran Kuznetsova has had her best results in the majors here, & can make another good run this year. No. 4 seed Garbi Muguruza is another lover of the red dirt, & despite her patchy form, she’s my pick to retain her title.   

Federer Rewrites the Rule Book

Federer re-wrote the manual on shots that are possible on the tennis court. Nadal was on the receiving end yesterday of a half-volleyed winner from the baseline.

The conventional wisdom was that Federer not supposed to be able to win 5-setters against the younger guys, let alone the three he won in Melbourne to pick up the title. 

Improvements in sports science have allowed players to extend their careers, & winning titles in their 30’s may become more common, as Wawrinka did at the US & French Opens. However Federer’s Aussie Open win at 35 is clearly an exceptional feat. 

He was supposed to have of a chance of winning another Slam only at Wimbledon, as he’s still considered one of the best movers on a grass court and has a formidable career win percentage on the green stuff. He had already disproved this theory by reaching the 2015 US Open final.

The conventional wisdom was that you don’t win a tournament, let alone a Slam, after a six month lay-off. Roger had other ideas.

Serena Williams continues to extend her own formidable haul of majors and GOAT status. It was a disappointment she didn’t face tougher competition. Some possible rivals are out of the picture, with Azarenka on maternity leave & Kvitova’s hand injury. Other rivals in Melbourne underperformed- Kerber & Muguruza, or were injured (Halep).

Tennis Season Predictions

Who can capture the major titles in 2017?

On the men’s side, this blogger feels there are 3 categories of players who can be ruled out: GOATs, youngsters & spoilers.

It looks unlikely that Federer & Nadal can add to their major haul. Both GOAT contenders have lost their aura & have suffered with injury lay-offs, six months in the Fed's case.

One of Nadal’s strengths used to be coming through tough 5 setters. Over the last 16 months he’s been on the wrong end of the score, with notable losses to Fognini & Pouille (both US Open) and Verdasco (Aus Open).

Alexander Zverev is perhaps the most promising of the younger generation (Thiem, Krygios, Edmund, Fritz etc.) The German may need a couple more years before he can challenge in the Slams, but should make top 15 in the rankings this year.

Then there are the spoilers, who can do damage to other contenders, but who may fall short of lifting the trophies.

Nishikori must surely improve his serve to have a chance of winning a major

Krygios is up to career high rank of 13 but has yet to go past a major QF and question marks remain over his temperament.

Finally then, the select group of possible Slam winners, who I would rank in this order: Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Del Potro and Raonic.

On the women’s tour, who can challenge Kerber at the top?

Kvitova is now out with hand injury, Azarenka is on maternity leave.

Will age catch up with Serena Williams? To date she has seemed largely immune to the ravages of time, & has that unmatched serve to get her out of trouble.

Radwanska is perhaps the best tactician on the WTA tour but ‘The Professor’ lacks the power game to capture the top honours.

Halep has finished the last three years in the top four of the rankings & the Romanian can again push for no. 1

Muguruza lifted the French crown last year, but then bombed out in round two at both the US Open & SW19. I expect her to be more consistent this season & be the closest challenger to Kerber.

An Open Letter to Chris Kermode

Dear Chris

I caught some of your interview with Jon Inverdale on ITV4 yesterday re: considering how to keep tennis popular in the future.

You suggested in an age of shorter attention spans, no-one wants to sit all the way through a six-hour tennis match. Even a hardcore fan like me would find it hard to disagree.

However, part of the beauty of tennis is the scoring system that gives you ten minute games with multiple deuces & epic long matches. People can always dip in & out of the live TV coverage for the most exciting bits eg ends of sets; or even catch the five minute highlights on YouTube. The unique scoring system is part of the appeal that sets it apart from other sports.

By all means experiment with different formats like TieBreak Tens or Superset to showcase the #NextGen, but please keep the Grand Slams as they are. Just like Test cricket co-exists with the Twenty20 IPL.

Regards,

Sam Wheeler

Tennis Title Picks

My predictions for Roland Garros:

Dominic Thiem has one of the best clay records over the past year, but has yet to prove his pedigree at the very highest level. He's won a 500 & four 250 level tournaments, but has made just one Masters quarter-final. Nadal looks to have a very tough draw. He is in Djokovic's half & could face Fognini & Thiem in the 3rd & 4th rounds.

Murray's improvement on the red dirt is such that he has the best win percentage on clay  for the past 52 weeks. The Scot may have to get past reigning champ Wawrinka in the semis, & after that the Serb may be an obstacle too far in the final.

Who can stop Serena as she takes another crack at equalling Graf's record of 22 Slams ? Vika Azarenka was tipped by Henman. Her record on hard courts is stellar, but her clay court resume is far less impressive, & she is in Serena's half.

From the lower half, Halep & Garbine Muguruza would be my picks for the semi-finals. I have a feeling Muguruza can frustrate Williams and claim her maiden Slam.

Leicester Take the Laurels

What else is there to say about Leicester City and their phenomenal achievement? It’s indisputably one of the great underdog triumphs of all time. All the doubters- & this blogger- were expecting them to fall away but they just kept winning. Ranieri is by all accounts one of the nicest men in football, so it’s well deserved that the Roman finally got his league title laurels.

Next season the title race should be fiercely contested with Guardiola looking to work his magic on City, Klopp’s resurgent Liverpool, & Spurs have a taste for the top. The Foxes may struggle to finish in the top half. They will be a prized scalp, with the added demands of Champions League football, and will also have to deal with the changed mindset of being the hunted. Kante is a key player for their hyperactive style & may well be poached by one of the big boys.

The Cambridge crew in the Women's Boat Race gave their all in a losing cause but showed great determination & courage to finish the race. Many would have taken the easy option to abandon when they were taking on water in the choppy conditions.

“In the dust of defeat as well as the laurels of victory there is a glory to be found if one has done his best.”
― Eric Liddell

Djoker Holds All the Aces

Novak Djokovic is so dominant it’s getting boring. The unpredictability of sport is a big part of the appeal, but Djokovic is rarely on the losing side nowadays. The Serb’s haul for 2015 includes three Majors, six Masters, & the year-end championship, as he set a new record for total ranking points in a year. Arguably it was the best season in the men’s game for many years, surpassing even the peak years of the Swiss maestro.

There will be many, including this blogger, who will hope the Serb has peaked, so that others can share the spoils of victory. Next year, there’s also Olympic gold on offer, and Novak would love to upgrade his bronze from Beijing 2008. 

Before 2011, the World Cup record of the All Blacks did not match up with their winning record elsewhere. The label of them as chokers on the biggest stage has now been emphatically buried.

Sporting greats are set apart by their composure & execution under pressure. Dan Carter’s drop goal in the final was the best example I’ve seen this year. The Aussies had pulled back to within four points, 10 minutes left to play, the fly-half struck it beautifully, right through the middle of the sticks.

Risk & Reward

It was one of the all-time great underdog victories. Japan’s previous world cup record read P22, W1 D1 L 22. The opposition, South Africa, are two-time world cup winners.

The lead changed hands four times in the first half, but according to the usual script Japan would succumb and the Springboks would come though after being given an almighty scare. On 44 minutes, South Africa had a six point lead, & by the 63^rd it was seven, but Japan refused to yield. On 79 minutes, trailing by 3, surely they would go for the penalty & take the draw? No, they had the guts to risk going for the win & were rewarded with a sensational victory.   

 

Novak Djokovic is on course to have one of the standout seasons of recent years. It ranks with McEnroe in 1984 (W82 L3), Federer 2006 (92-5), Nadal 2010 & his own stellar season of 2011.

Worryingly for his rivals in the indoor season , the Serb hasn’t lost on indoor (hard) court for 31 matches. Among his contemporaries only Wawrinka , Murray & Nishikori  look capable of beating him in a best-of five match. Of the younger guns, Coric is not yet at his level, Dimitrov has had an off year, & Krygios is too flaky.

At the US Open Murray ran into Kevin Anderson in the best form of his career, but still has a massive prize to play for. GB will play Belgium in the Davis Cup final after Murray won three rubbers for the second tie in succession.

 

Great credit is due to Wayne Rooney for breaking Charlton’s England goal record. He’s also closing in on the Man U club record.

Domination

Dominance is today’s theme.

Jordan Spieth, having already won two majors this year, finished only one shot behind the winner at the Open.  Currently he sits three shots off the lead of the US PGA.

Depressingly for her rivals, Serena Williams can win majors even with a bad case of the flu, as she did at the French. A calendar year Grand Slam is still on the cards.

Djokovic brings to mind a Skynet Terminator.  The Serb is as relentless & indestructible as the  T-1000. Arguably he is the best athlete & toughest mentally on the ATP tour. The crop of young talents such as Coric, Zverev, Thiem and the special Ks look to have a long way to go to be capable of challenging. The world no. 1 will play Chardy today in the Montreal semis.

Chris Froome looked to be totally dominant in Le Tour, but his winning margin was trimmed to just over a minute when Quintana dropped him on Alpe d’Huez, the penultimate stage. It‘s incredible that Robert Millar’s 4^th place (1984) was the best British finish until Wiggo in 2012, & now British riders have won it in three of the last four years. This must be a sickener for the French, their last winner being Hinault in 1985.

Stan The Man

Stan Wawrinka produced a thrilling display of attacking tennis to deny Djokovic the full set of Slam titles. Stan’s single-handed backhand is rated by many as the best in the game, but what was so impressive was his ability to come with up the goods under the most intense pressure. It was a welcome victory for those fans, your blogger included, who prefer ‘first strike’ attacking tennis to the counter-punching style of Djokovic.

Wawrinka has finally found the key to going deep in Majors late in his career. On the ITV commentary Courier mentioned a great stat illustrating this. In 34 attempts he had never made a Slam semi, but has now done it four times in the past seven Majors. Much credit must go to his coach Magnus Norman. As noted in a previous blog, Stan aways had the ability, now he has the mental strength, and conditioning, to back it up.

No less impressive was the 20th slam for Serena. Even when she’s suffering with the flu, Williams still had an extra gear when faced with adversity, coming from a set down four times en route to the title. She will surely surpass Steffi Graf’s haul of 22 majors.

After a nine year drought, Arsenal have two trophies in two years. They repeated their FA Cup victory and look like genuine title contenders. League success may depend on Wenger ending the hex Mourinho has over him. Jose’s team were accused of grinding out boring wins towards the end of the season, but still ended up 2^nd highest scorers.

Brief mentions for:

 Stuart Bingham, like Wawrinka, has found success late in his career

James Anderson, record English wicket-taker

Floyd Mayweather, no stranger to success & still peerless.

Bournemouth, deserved second division champions, scoring 98 goals, with Eddie Howe a candidate for manager of the season

Try & Try Again

The Six Nations final day try fest was the exhilarating highlight of the past two months. The staggered kick-offs & points difference favoured the running game as the title contenders tried to rack up the score. Will we see a repeat In November ? The fear factor may induce a return to the attritional style of power rugby.

In the Davis Cup two stand-out gruelling 5 setters stood out, and to describe them as marathons seems inadequate. James Ward’s gritty five hour comeback win over Isner was incredibly surpassed by Mayer v Souza. The 6 hr 43 match was the longest in Davis Cup history, beating Wilander-McEnroe. Although a great spectacle for the fans, such long matches are perhaps too tough for the players. Neither Mayer nor Souza have played since their epic rubber.

Nadal lost a match on clay-to Fognini in the Rio semis. Last year he recovered to lift the Coupe des Mousquetaires at Roland Garros. I wonder if one of the young guns like Coric could thwart a 10th title this time.

The Premier league may have the richest TV rights deal in Europe, but not the playing quality to match. No English teams reached the Quarter-Finals of European competition for the first time in 22 years. Arsenal blew a great chance v Monaco & Chelsea couldn’t make an extra man count against PSG.

Two ex-Soviet  boxers  excelled. Golovkin has the reputation as the most fearsome puncher in the world, and Martin Murray was the latest knockout victim of the Kazak. Kovalev followed up beating Hopkins with a dominant stoppage of Jean Pascal.

Serb & Volley

Djokovic won his fifth Aussie Open.   As in their previous recent major matches, it was closely contested at the start with numerous breaks of serve. At 0-2 in the third set, the Serb looked shattered, but found his second wind & it was Murray who finished limply. Of course reaching the final was no mean feat, but the finish to the match will cause the Scot considerable angst.

Perhaps his most wounding recent defeat prior to today was the drubbing inflicted on him by Federer at the 02 in November. The Swiss became only the third man to pass 1000 victories when he won the Brisbane title. In Melbourne though he lost to Seppi for the 1^st time in 11 meetings. This seems to be  a recurring theme in the latter part of Federer’s career –his sole loss to Robredo was at the 2013 US Open.

Another sporting landmark was made by the cue genius Ronnie O’Sullivan, passing Hendry’s mark for century breaks. He won the UK title in December, & made the semis of the Masters  in the process of breaking the record.

Seattle and New England contest the Superbowl tonight. In the championship games, Green Bay blew it, while Denver didn’t blow up the balls (allegedly). The Packers fumbled an onside kick to blow their lead. The Broncos were accused of deflating their (offensive) set of balls to make catching passes easier.

Amir Khan surprised me in December by totally outboxing Devon Alexander with impressive discipline & skill. He would love a megafight, but Pacquiao & Mayweather will most likely look for more lucrative fights elsewhere.

Perspective

We like to obsess over stats or pontificate about why England’s backs lack creativity. It puts a downer on our weekend if our team lose to their hated rivals. The tragic death of Phil Hughes of course puts things in perspective.

The capacity of Bernard Hopkins to defy age, and often much younger opposition, has been superhuman. Until last month.  Kovalev won every round of their unification bout, & B-Hop took heavy punishment in the 12th. You hope he retires now, with his senses still intact.

Roger Federer, especially in the early part of his career, also seemed to have a superhuman ability- to avoid injury. Latterly he’s not been immune, and after a gruelling semi versus Wawrinka was not fit for the final of Masters. A few days rest for his back did the trick however, & this time he was teamed with Stan the Man for the Davis Cup final. Federer split his singles matches, but the back was strong enough for him to partner Stan to win the doubles rubber & the Cup on the Sunday. Only Olympic singles gold is now missing from Roger’s CV.

Talking of obsessing over statistics. Real Madrid are currently on a club record 17 match win streak. Los Blancos had a patchy start to La Liga but clearly Ancelotti has now found the right blend for his Galacticos.

Manning & The Vets

Andy Murray had intended to have more rest after the US Open. When qualification for the O2 season-ending tournament looked in doubt, he changed his schedule to chase ranking points.  It worked out brilliantly. After 14 months without a title, he won three tournaments in five weeks (Shenzhen, Vienna & Valencia).

The resurgence of Roger Federer continues, he won two Masters titles & Basel. He matched Djokovic by reaching the SFs in NY and looks certain to finish at least as world no. 2.

Results last year had suggested the Swiss great was in decline. Similar questions had been posed of Serena Williams with her Major record in 2014. Australia 4^th round, 2^nd round in Paris & round 3 Wimbledon.  Her finish to the season, with US & WTA Championship titles which confirmed her no. 1 ranking, was an emphatic answer.

Bradley Wiggins benefitted from fresh legs-no Grand Tours this year, finally getting the better of Tony Martin in the world time trial championship.

Peyton Manning broke yet another NFL record, this time for touchdown passes. Once again the Broncos & the Patriots are leading the AFC standings, and the Manning Brady rivalry will resume tomorrow in Foxborough.

Holywood Ending

It was the standout performance of August for many sports fans, including this one. Rory McIlroy was awesome winning the PGA. Three shots behind at the turn, other players would have panicked & pushed for too much or folded a la Greg Norman. Could he beat the records of Woods or even Nicklaus ? While he will be a hot favourite for the Masters, those records are still a long way off and injury, continued motivation & the emergence of new players have to be reckoned with. Certainly the other players must now fear him as Woods was once feared. The Ulsterman has a good chance to overhaul the record for most majors won by a European.

Roger Federer has showed signs he’s back to his best form this year. Victory in Cincinnati was his first Masters title for two years. This time last year he had just one win with seven losses v top 10 opposition, this year is a much healthier 12-4. Coach Edberg has encouraged more net approaches & so less baseline coverage for those 33 year old legs. The same game plan could also work for Andy Murray, who has not yet reached his former level since his back surgery.

A word for Mk Dons. A 3^rd string Man Utd side perhaps for the League Cup tie, but still a massive upset.

The Final Analysis

Underdogs shine but class tells in the end

Serena, upset by Muguruza at Roland Garros, made another early exit at Wimbledon. She will still start as favourite & no. 1 seed for the US Open, and needs just one slam to draw level with Navratilova & Evert.

In the final Kvitova was awesome, beating Bouchard in less than an hour. The challenge for the Czech now is to get the consistency that she’s lacked in the past with her high-risk game style. Bouchard will contest more Slam finals.

There were big wins for young pretenders.  Krygios had swagger & nerves to take out Nadal, Dimitrov beat Murray in straights. The old pecking order was still intact for the final though. The previous dominance of the Big Four is evidenced by it being the 1st Slam final since the 2009 US Open not to feature either Nadal or Murray.

Many experts, including this blogger, wanted Federer to retire last year after early Slam exits to Stakhovsky & Robredo. This year has been a welcome return to top form. It took Djokovic to stop him in a final of the highest quality. As long he can continue to perform at a high level he will keep playing. As the saying goes, you’re a long time retired.

It was the most exciting World Cup since 1986 for my money. Spain & Italy didn’t make the  knockouts, but unfancied Costa Rica won their group. Holland’s 5-1 spanking of Spain seemed like it would be the shock result of the tournament, until Brazil’s astonishing capitulation to Germany in the semi.

Froome & Contador were the pre-race favourites for Le Tour, but both had to abandon after a series of heavy crashes. Vincenzo Nibali took full advantage. He won by more than seven minutes, with four stage wins, & was never put in difficulties.

Angel, The Bull & The Cobra

 Some months it’s a struggle to find enough inspiration for a decent blog post. Not this time, with an action-packed May & June.

Real Madrid did La Decima, Atleti ran out of gas in extra time. Bale & Ronaldo got on the scoresheet but DiMaria was the star player on the night.

The squad strength of Man City showed over the PL season. When Aguero was injured, Dzeko did the business up front.  Liverpool went on a 11 game win streak which in most seasons would have taken the title, but the Reds & Gerrard slipped from the perch starting with defeat by Chelsea.

Jonny Wilkinson joined his fellow legend, O’Driscoll, in retirement, finishing on a high with a European & Top 14 double.

At Roland Garros Nadal was yet again untouchable. Sharapova & Halep produced the best womens final in years, battling for over three hours.

Froch v Groves had an ending worthy of the biggest post-war boxing crowd, with a devastating single punch ko.

England supporters had dreamed that a team with promising youngsters could make the WC quarters. The reality: the pain of an early group stage exit, was softened by being in good company with the old powers of Spain and Italy, as well as CR7.

Hala Madrid

It looked like Liverpool had built up an unstoppable momentum. Chelsea, the arch-pragmatists, had other ideas and upset them & the romantics who thought the Reds deserved it this year, ensuring the title race will go right down to the wire.  

Other things that have caught my eye these past two months

Real will go for La Decima in an all-Madrid final, while their biggest rivals, Barca, failed to make the semis for the first time in seven years.

Bayern won the Bundesliga with seven games to spare, but have since lost focus & were humiliated by Real in the UCL semi-final.

Man City picked up the first piece of major silverware, the League Cup.

BOD retired in style as Ireland won the 6 Nations.

Djokovic did the Indian Wells/ Miami double for the 2^nd time. Rafa has proved to be fallible on clay, losing twice to fellow Spaniards. The resurgence of Federer continues, reaching the finals of Monaco & Indian Wells. Wawrinka, the surprise package of the year, won again in Monaco & he tops the YTD rankings.

British hopes in the Davis Cup were ended by Italy in the QFs.

The ageless Bernard Hopkins who won another title belt at the age of 49.

Red Alert

A double bill for Jan & Feb.

Stan Wawrinka always had the talent. The Aussie Open showed he now has developed the nerve / belief to pull out the wins in a major against the two top-ranked players in the world.

Britain hadn’t beaten USA in the Davis Cup since 1935, & now play Italy in the QFs. James Ward, like Dan Evans, again proved he can deliver on the big occasions for his county, defeating much higher-ranked opposition.

It was the battle of the meanest defence in the NFL v the highest scoring offence in the Superbowl. The Seahawks crushed favourites Denver 43-8 for their first title. Peyton Manning is a future hall of famer, & had set TD & yardage records in the regular season, but his post-season record is a blemish on his illustrious career.It’s not news to say that Man. United are having a disastrous season by their lofty standards. Losing to Sunderland in the semi of the League Cup was the previous low point, but a new nadir was the abject performance in the UCL r16 first leg v Olympiakos. They still have an outside chance to progress with the return leg at Old Trafford.

The rapid decline of the champions is something of a mystery. On current form they may emulate Blackburn who were 7th in ‘95-96 season, the most recent occasion that the defending champions finished so low in the league.  

United have mostly the same team as last season that won title at a canter, though their rivals underperformed. The summer transfers have strengthened others (City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs), but the Reds have stagnated.

As the bad results have piled up, the fear factor has gone and opponents scent blood. There are weak links in defence & the midfield is a pale shadow of the glory days of Keane, Beckham, Scholes & Giggs.

 

Performance of the Month

 

Seahawks.